arXiv:2607.21200stat.MLcs.LG2026-07

用基于Transformer的扩散模型修复和预测水文时间序列,提升稀疏数据下的建模精度。

Transformer-based Diffusion models for Hydrological Time Series Probabilistic Imputation and Forecasting

论文配图:Transformer-based Diffusion models for Hydrological Time Series Probabilistic Imputation and Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 结合Transformer与扩散模型,处理多站点水文数据的缺失与动态建模。
  • 在6个站点的15年数据上验证,对缺测数据的重建与未来趋势预测均表现优异。
  • 适合水资源管理、洪水干旱预警等需要高精度水文模拟的研究者。

在观测数据有限的情况下建模水文气象时间序列是监测水系统、水资源管理以及洪涝或干旱风险评估的关键挑战。由于底层过程高度变异且实测数据稀疏,传统统计方法往往难以准确刻画其动态特性。近年来深度学习的发展为复杂时间序列的表征与生成提供了新方向。本研究探索了基于Transformer的扩散模型在水文时间序列模拟与重构中的应用。框架在法国东北部三个相邻山地流域的6个站点上进行测试,这些流域覆盖石灰岩台地,植被以森林和农田为主。模型基于超过15年的质量控制后观测数据进行校准与验证,数据经由法国国家计量局(LNE)与Andra机构的月度质控协作完成,修复了传感器漂移与故障问题。通过多种定量指标评估该方法在两类场景下的表现:不完整时间序列的填补与未来水文状态的预测。结果表明,该方法能有效捕捉并模拟水文数据中的复杂模式,尤其在存在变量缺失的条件下,扩散模型可高效采样出符合真实分布的时间序列,在填补与预测任务中均优于多个主流基线模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The modeling of hydrometeorological time series with limited observations is a key challenge in the monitoring of hydro-systems and water resources, as well as for flood or drought risk assessment. Due to the high variability of the underlying processes and the sparsity of available measurements, traditional statistical approaches often struggle to accurately represent their dynamics. In this context, recent advances in deep learning offer a promising direction for improving the representation and generation of complex temporal processes sampled at several observation sites. This study investigates the application of transformer-based diffusion models to the simulation and reconstruction of hydrological time series. The proposed framework is applied to the joint modeling of water quantity and quality at six sites spread across three adjacent headwater catchments located in North-East France on a limestone plateau covered by forests and field crops. The model is calibrated and validated using available observational data, which has been quality controlled and corrected for sensor drift and malfunction through collaborative efforts by LNE metrology expertise and Andra monthly quality control over more than 15 years. Its performance is compared with several established baseline approaches commonly used for time series modeling. Quantitative evaluation metrics are employed to assess the ability of the proposed method to reproduce key temporal characteristics of the observed signals in two settings: the imputation of incomplete time series and the forecasting of upcoming hydrological conditions. Results support the effectiveness of the transformer-based approach and highlight its capacity to capture and simulate the complex patterns present in hydrological data. In particular, the results indicate that diffusion models can efficiently sample realistic time series distributions under observation settings with variable missing data for both forecasting and imputation.

水文建模扩散模型时间序列填补概率预测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。