arXiv:2607.21922cs.LG2026-07

通过恢复时间对齐信息,提升缺失数据下临床时序预测精度

MissHyper: Restoring Clinical Synchronicity in Missingness-Guided Hypergraph Forecasting

论文配图:MissHyper: Restoring Clinical Synchronicity in Missingness-Guided Hypergraph Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用局部密度提示增强事件表征,提前恢复同时间点患者状态上下文
  • 在PhysioNet 2012、MIMIC-III、MIMIC-IV上多步预测均优于基线
  • 适用于稀疏临床时序数据,尤其适合关注事件初始化的模型设计

临床多变量时序数据不仅受生理动态影响,也受测量过程决定的观测时机与内容制约。现有事件中心模型常过早扁平化时间对齐结构:同一时刻采集的数据被嵌入为孤立节点,导致局部患者状态上下文需依赖后续消息传递才可获取。本文研究此预传播表征瓶颈,提出MissHyper——一种基于缺失性引导的超图预测模型,通过在事件前恢复时间对齐上下文来解决该问题。具体而言,模型为每个事件增加局部支持密度提示,聚合同时间记录以重建患者状态上下文,并使用缺失性引导门控机制自适应融合节点特异性证据与重构上下文。在PhysioNet 2012、MIMIC-III和MIMIC-IV数据集上,MissHyper在多步预测任务中实现一致性能提升,显著优于强基线超图模型。消融实验表明,快照恢复、自适应融合与支持密度编码均具贡献,强调事件初始化是稀疏临床预测的关键设计维度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Clinical irregular multivariate time series are shaped not only by physiological dynamics but also by the measurement process that determines when and what to observe. In event-centric models, however, co-timestamp structure can be flattened too early: measurements acquired at the same timestamp are embedded as isolated nodes, leaving local patient-state context unavailable until later message-passing layers. We study this pre-propagation representation bottleneck and address it by restoring co-timestamp context before message passing begins. We propose MissHyper, a missingness-guided hypergraph forecasting model with pre-propagation synchronicity restoration. MissHyper augments each event with a local support-density cue, aggregates co-timestamp records to recover patient-state context, and uses a missingness-guided gate to adaptively fuse node-specific evidence with the recovered context. Across PhysioNet 2012, MIMIC-III, and MIMIC-IV, MissHyper achieves consistent gains in multi-step forecasting and outperforms a strong hypergraph baseline. These results suggest that improving event initialization can benefit sparse clinical forecasting without requiring a redesigned downstream propagation architecture. Ablations indicate that snapshot restoration, adaptive fusion, and support-density encoding all contribute, pointing to event initialization as a critical design axis for sparse clinical forecasting.

临床时序超图缺失数据预测

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