arXiv:2607.22268stat.MLcs.LG2026-07

用通用价值函数统一预测设备剩余寿命和故障模式。

General Value Functions for Remaining Useful Life and Failure-Mode Prediction

论文配图:General Value Functions for Remaining Useful Life and Failure-Mode Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将剩余寿命与故障模式建模为向量通用价值函数,实现时序一致性预测。
  • 在标签稀缺数据上,多步TD方法相比蒙特卡洛基线提升预测精度。
  • 适合处理无身份标识、不完整退化记录的工业预测维护场景。

剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测与故障模式分类是预测性维护的核心任务。现有数据驱动方法通常采用固定窗口监督学习并依赖完整终端标签,但此类方法难以自然建模观测不全或单元身份未知时连续退化状态间的时序递归关系。本文将预测问题建模为吸收退化过程上的向量通用价值函数(GVF)预测,将RUL与故障模式概率视为具有时间一致性的目标,而非独立的窗口级标签,并采用多步时序差分估计器TD($n,λ$)进行估计。理论分析揭示了向量GVFs的贝尔曼不动点,刻画了线性投影TD的极限及其在可实现性假设下与完整回报蒙特卡洛回归的关系,并解释了为何自举式TD目标方差小于蒙特卡洛回报。在事件触发的多模式仿真及NASA C-MAPSS标签稀缺拼接数据上,TD方法在标签稀疏条件下显著优于同架构蒙特卡洛基线。实际应用中,碎片化且无身份标识的退化记录可贡献局部贝尔曼转移,无需等待完整失效标签即可参与学习。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction and failure-mode classification are central tasks in predictive maintenance. Many data-driven pipelines use fixed-window supervised learning with complete terminal labels; such routes do not naturally encode the temporal recursion linking successive degradation-state predictions when observations are partial or unit identities are unavailable. We formulate prognostics as vector General Value Function (GVF) prediction on an absorbing degradation process, treating RUL and failure-mode probabilities as temporally consistent targets rather than independent window-level labels, and estimate them with a multi-step temporal-difference estimator, TD($n,λ$). Supporting theory identifies the Bellman fixed point of the vector GVFs, characterizes the linear projected-TD limit and its relation to complete-return Monte Carlo regression under realizability, and explains when bootstrapped TD targets are less variable than Monte Carlo returns. On an event-triggered multimode simulation and NASA C-MAPSS label-scarce stitch data, TD improves RUL and failure-mode prediction relative to a supervised same-backbone Monte Carlo control, especially under scarce complete labels. Practically, fragmented, identity-free degradation records can contribute local Bellman transitions instead of being discarded until complete run-to-failure labels are available.

剩余寿命故障预测强化学习工业维护

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