arXiv:2607.22313stat.MLcs.LG2026-07

用神经网络同时估计双向因果关系,无需外部工具变量。

Learning Bidirectional Causal Interactions with Heteroscedastic Neural Networks

  • 通过条件方差非比例性识别双向结构关系
  • 在高维非线性数据中比传统方法更准确恢复因果效应
  • 适合研究价格与销量等即时互动的经济场景

从观测数据中估计同时发生的双向互动十分困难,因为每个结果都内生于另一个,而灵活回归只能捕捉简化形式依赖。本文提出 SEM-DNN,一种异方差神经同步方程估计器,可在无外部工具变量情况下学习相互作用的结构关系。识别基于条件协方差对角化:当结构冲击具有零条件均值、在预确定协变量下条件不相关,且条件方差不成比例时,仅真实交互系数能对特征空间中的条件残差协方差实现对角化。该方法联合逼近非线性结构均值函数和特征依赖方差,采用包含系统雅可比矩阵的对角高斯拟似然。我们证明了唯一识别性和目标函数正定局部曲率;在神经网络-拟合兼容条件下,即使网络参数不唯一,所实现的神经准则仍保持该曲率。当结构方程代表在相关干预下不变的独立机制时,系数具有因果解释。蒙特卡洛实验显示,在非线性、高维干扰项和非高斯冲击下,随着信息增加,SEM-DNN 比参数模型、核方法及独立方程神经网络更可靠地恢复结构效应,尽管计算成本更高。对即食谷物销售数据的应用展示了该方法如何研究价格-销量即时反馈,评估识别强度、残差对角化、方差校准及优化敏感性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimating contemporaneous bidirectional interactions from observational data is difficult because each outcome is endogenous to the other, while flexible regressions may capture only reduced-form dependence. This paper proposes SEM-DNN, a heteroscedastic neural simultaneous-equation estimator that learns reciprocal structural interactions without external instruments. Identification exploits conditional covariance diagonalization: when structural shocks have zero conditional means, are conditionally uncorrelated given predetermined covariates, and exhibit nonproportional conditional variances, only the true interaction coefficients diagonalize the conditional residual covariance across the feature space. The method jointly approximates nonlinear structural mean functions and feature-dependent variances using a diagonal Gaussian quasi-likelihood that incorporates the simultaneous-system Jacobian. We establish unique identification and positive-definite local curvature of the profiled population criterion and show that, under neural-profile compatibility conditions, the implemented neural criterion inherits this curvature despite nonunique network parameterizations. The coefficients admit a causal interpretation when the structural equations represent autonomous mechanisms that remain invariant under the relevant interventions. Monte Carlo experiments with nonlinear, high-dimensional nuisance functions and non-Gaussian shocks show that SEM-DNN recovers structural effects more reliably than parametric, kernel-based, and separate-equation neural alternatives as information increases, although at greater computational cost. An application to ready-to-eat cereal scanner data illustrates how the method can study contemporaneous price-sales feedback and assess identification strength, residual diagonalization, variance calibration, and optimization sensitivity.

因果推断神经网络双向互动

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