通过精准预测与动态匹配,提升智能电网柔性负荷调节能力
DRP-FLR: Data-Driven Assessment of Demand Response Potential for Flexible Load Regulation in Smart Grids

- 融合实体信息与时间特征,实现短期负荷精准预测
- 匹配负荷模式与预测结果,量化各主体调峰潜力
- 兼顾系统平衡与用户收益,适合电网调度与园区管理
人工智能算力和可再生能源的快速增长加剧了电力系统的供需失衡,传统以高效分配为目标的负荷调控已不适用,亟需需求响应(DR)机制提升负荷可控性。然而现有方法多关注电费或舒适度优化,忽视异构主体动态用电行为,易造成过度或不足调节。为此,我们提出DRP-FLR:首先将实体信息与预测时间等外生知识嵌入历史负荷表示,实现精准短期负荷预测;其次通过聚类构建各主体专属负荷模式图谱,并匹配预测负荷以估计需求响应潜力;最后将柔性负荷调节建模为混合整数规划问题,使用MILP求解器联合优化需求响应利用率、参与者经济收益与可再生能源消纳,同时保障供需平衡与经济可行性。在区域电网与校园微电网上的实验表明,该方法使调节偏差降低36.63%–91.87%,参与者收益平均提升44.66%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rapid growth of AI workloads and renewable energy resources exacerbates supply-demand imbalance in power systems, making traditional load regulation designed for efficient allocation inadequate and motivating demand response (DR) mechanisms to enable load controllability in smart grids. However, existing DR-oriented approaches either focus on optimizing electricity cost or occupant comfort with limited benefit to system-level balance. Others overlook the diverse and dynamic consumption patterns of heterogeneous energy entities, leading to significant over- or under-regulation. Therefore, we propose DRP-FLR. First, DRP-FLR achieves accurate short-term load forecasting by embedding exogenous knowledge (e.g., entity information, prediction time) into historical load representations. Next, it constructs entity-specific load-pattern profiles by clustering historical load curves, and estimates DR potential by matching forecasted loads with pattern profiles. Finally, DRP-FLR formulates flexible load regulation as a mixed-integer optimization problem and solves it with an MILP solver to jointly optimize DR utilization, participant economic benefit, and renewable accommodation, while enforcing supply-demand balance and economic feasibility. Experiments on a regional grid and a campus microgrid show that DRP-FLR reduces regulation deviation by 36.63%-91.87% and improves participant benefit by 44.66% on average.
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