arXiv:2607.22640cs.CYcs.AI2026-07

分析环境与心理因素对认知困难的影响,发现心理因素作用更强。

AI-Assisted Causal Inference and Mediation Analyses of Environmental and Psychosocial Determinants of Subjective Cognitive Difficulties in the All of Us Research Program

论文配图:AI-Assisted Causal Inference and Mediation Analyses of Environmental and Psychosocial Determinants of Subjective Cognitive Difficulties in the All of Us Research Program
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用纵向数据结合多种统计方法分析环境与认知关系
  • 心理因素影响显著大于短期环境暴露
  • AI辅助分析结果与主分析一致,适合公共卫生研究者

基于All of Us研究项目(2018–2024)的纵向数据,将每日气象与空气污染暴露与重复测量的注意力相关及主观认知结果关联。采用混合效应、固定效应、滞后及事件研究分析评估关联性。进一步通过机器学习探索潜在异质性与隐含心理社会结构。在2024年行为风险因素监测系统(BRFSS)中进行复制分析。混合分析显示,多个环境暴露指标与认知结果存在微弱关联,但经校正地点内时间变异后大多显著减弱。中介分析、敏感性分析及机器学习结果均支持相同结论。相反,心理健康负担、孤独感和社会功能与主观认知困难始终显著相关,效应量远超环境暴露。BRFSS中亦观察到类似模式。探索性AI辅助分析结果总体与主分析一致。表明在控制地点内时间变化后,短期环境扰动对认知结果的影响有限,而心理社会因素更稳定地关联主观认知负担。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Short-term environmental exposures have been linked to cognitive and behavioral outcomes, although many reported associations may reflect broader geographic and contextual differences. Using longitudinal data from the All of Us Research Program (2018--2024), we linked daily weather and air-pollution exposures to repeated attention-related and subjective cognitive outcomes. Associations were evaluated using pooled, fixed-effects, lagged, and event-study analyses. Additional machine-learning analyses were conducted to explore potential heterogeneity and latent psychosocial structure. Replication analyses were performed using the 2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Several environmental exposure measures showed small associations with cognitive outcomes in pooled analyses, but most attenuated substantially after accounting for within-location temporal variation. Mediation, sensitivity, and machine-learning analyses yielded similar conclusions. In contrast, mental-health burden, loneliness, and social functioning were consistently associated with subjective cognitive difficulty and exhibited substantially larger effect sizes than environmental exposures. Similar patterns were observed in BRFSS. Exploratory AI-assisted analyses yielded findings broadly consistent with the primary longitudinal analyses. These findings suggest that short-term environmental perturbations may have limited associations with cognitive outcomes after accounting for within-location variation, whereas psychosocial factors appear to be more consistently associated with subjective cognitive burden.

因果推断心理社会因素环境暴露

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