arXiv:2607.22641cs.DLcs.AI2026-07

自动分析文本时间数据,挖掘新兴趋势,省去人工调参。

AutoCluster, AutoTopicModeling, AutoTrendAnalysis: A Complete AutoML Pipeline for Predicting Emerging Trends

论文配图:AutoCluster, AutoTopicModeling, AutoTrendAnalysis: A Complete AutoML Pipeline for Predicting Emerging Trends
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用元学习选聚类算法,自动匹配最佳主题建模方法。
  • 多模型对比预测,最终RMSE低至7.099,准确率高。
  • 适合无机器学习背景的用户快速获取趋势洞察。

预测新兴趋势对商业、科研和政策制定至关重要,但传统方法往往缺乏可扩展性和适应性。本文提出基于自动化机器学习(AutoML)的趋势预测框架,从带时间属性的文本数据中提取洞察。系统接收带日期字段的主题文本,先进行预处理与嵌入,再通过AutoClustering使用元学习选择最优聚类算法;接着在LDA、LSA、BERTopic、NMF中通过逐次减半法,依据主题一致性得分选出最佳主题建模方法;最后在Facebook Prophet、ARIMA、STL、LSTM中评估多个时间序列模型,以均方根误差(RMSE)为标准选择最优模型,或采用穷举比较。根据预测结果将主题分类为强信号、弱信号或噪声,从而识别新兴趋势。该系统自动完成聚类、主题建模与时间序列预测,显著提升准确性并减少人工干预。实验表明,最佳试验方案的最终RMSE为7.099,验证了其高预测精度。该系统具备可扩展性与易用性,适用于实时应用及不具备机器学习专业知识的用户。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting emerging trends is vital for businesses, researchers, and policymakers; yet traditional approaches often lack scalability and adaptability. This paper presents a trend prediction framework based on Automated Machine Learning (AutoML), designed to extract insights from textual datasets with temporal attributes. The system ingests subject-specific textual entries accompanied by a date field. The pipeline begins with preprocessing and embedding, followed by AutoClustering, which uses meta-learning to select the optimal clustering algorithm. AutoTopicModeling then applies successive halving to identify the best topic modeling method: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), BERTopic, or Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) based on the coherence score for each cluster. For trend forecasting, AutoTrendAnalysis evaluates multiple models: Facebook Prophet, AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) selecting the most accurate based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), either through successive halving or exhaustive comparison. Topics are classified as strong signals, weak signals, or noise based on forecasting outcomes, enabling the identification of emerging trends. By automating clustering, topic modeling, and time series forecasting, this research enhances trend prediction accuracy while reducing manual effort. The proposed system offers a scalable and user-friendly solution suitable for real-time applications and stakeholders with limited machine learning expertise. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system's best trial achieves a final RMSE of 7.099, indicating high predictive accuracy.

趋势预测AutoML文本分析时间序列

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