arXiv:2607.22655cs.AI2026-07

用大模型理解事件语义,动态调整出行流量预测,无需重训练。

EventOD: Event-Aware OD Flow Generation via LLM-Guided Semantic Modulation

论文配图:EventOD: Event-Aware OD Flow Generation via LLM-Guided Semantic Modulation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过大模型解析事件信息,生成区域功能与人口控制向量。
  • 引入轻量适配模块,使预训练模型在突发事件下仍保持高精度。
  • 适合灾后应急、城市韧性研究等需要快速响应的场景。

在突发灾害事件下估算起止地(OD)流量对应急响应和城市韧性至关重要。现有基于常规出行数据训练的深度OD模型在极端事件导致区域功能与人口活动骤变时性能下降,而针对每类事件重新训练生成器又受限于事件发生时的监督数据不足。本文提出EventOD,一种事件自适应的OD生成框架,通过结构化事件语义引导预训练的OD生成器。首先利用大语言模型从粗粒度事件观测中推断区域级的功能与人口控制向量;随后学习两个轻量级适配模块(AlphaNet和BetaNet),校准这些语义变化的幅度,并引入检索增强的回退路径以应对监督数据稀疏的情况。最终,将事件条件特征通过输入层调制注入预训练的图扩散OD模型,实现无需更新参数的事件感知适应。在美国各县的飓风与疫情引发的出行数据上实验表明,EventOD在重建准确率与分布保真度方面均显著优于强基线模型。源代码见https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EventOD-5C11/。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimating origin-destination (OD) flows under disruptive events is important for disaster response and urban resilience. Existing deep OD models trained on routine mobility often degrade when extreme events abruptly alter regional functions and population activities, while retraining a new generator for each event is impractical under limited event-time supervision. We propose EventOD, an event-adaptive OD generation framework that steers a pretrained OD generator using structured event semantics. EventOD first uses a large language model to infer region-level functional and demographic control vectors from coarse event observations. It then learns two lightweight adaptation modules, AlphaNet and BetaNet, to calibrate the magnitude of these semantic shifts, and further introduces a retrieval-augmented fallback pathway for scenarios with sparse supervision. The resulting event-conditioned features are injected into a pretrained graph diffusion OD model through input-level modulation, enabling event-aware adaptation without updating generator parameters. Experiments on hurricane- and pandemic-induced mobility across U.S. counties show that EventOD consistently improves both reconstruction accuracy and distributional fidelity over strong baselines. Source code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EventOD-5C11/.

出行预测事件感知大模型应用灾后响应

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