arXiv:2607.22934stat.MLcs.LG2026-07

高效推断大规模基因调控网络,支持未知干预目标。

Amortized Bayesian Causal Discovery of Extended Factor Graphs

论文配图:Amortized Bayesian Causal Discovery of Extended Factor Graphs
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于扩展因子图的贝叶斯方法,保证无环性且可扩展至千节点。
  • 在模拟数据上准确率达当前最优,后验分布校准良好。
  • 适合生物医学中大规模扰动数据的因果发现任务。

从干预数据中学习因果图是一项具有广泛应用的挑战性任务。在分子生物学中,核心目标是从大规模扰动数据中揭示基因调控网络。理想的算法应能处理数千个节点,即使干预目标未知也能融入干预信息,量化不确定性,并提供可识别性保障。然而,现有方法(如基于评分优化或近似贝叶斯推断)常无法满足所有条件。为此,我们提出了一种名为 ABCDEFG(Amortized Bayesian Causal Discovery of Extended Factor Graphs)的方法。该方法保证精确无环,可扩展至数千节点,并自然处理干预目标未知的情况。此外,ABCDEFG 能估计后验分布,其最大后验估计在理论上可识别真实因果图的等价类。在模拟数据上,ABCDEFG 达到当前最佳准确率,生成了校准良好的后验分布,优于以往基于评分和近似贝叶斯的方法。应用于大规模单细胞扰动数据时,ABCDEFG 成功识别出生长因子的已知与新靶点。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Learning causal graphs from interventional data is a challenging problem with broad applications. In molecular biology, for example, a central goal is to uncover gene regulatory networks from large-scale perturbation data. An ideal algorithm for this task should scale to thousands of nodes, incorporate interventions even when their targets are unknown, quantify uncertainty, and provide identifiability guarantees. However, existing approaches---e.g. approaches using score-based optimization or approximate Bayesian inference---often fail to meet all of these criteria. To address these limitations, we develop Amortized Bayesian Causal Discovery of Extended Factor Graphs (ABCDEFG). Our method guarantees exact acyclicity, scales to graphs with thousands of nodes, and naturally handles interventions even when their targets are unknown. Additionally, ABCDEFG estimates a posterior distribution whose maximum a posteriori estimate provably identifies the true causal graph up to an equivalence class. On simulated datasets, ABCDEFG achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, producing a well-calibrated posterior distribution while outperforming previous score-based and approximate Bayesian methods. Applied to large-scale single-cell perturbation data, ABCDEFG identifies both established and novel gene targets of growth factors.

因果发现贝叶斯推断基因调控扩展因子图

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