arXiv:2607.23165stat.MLcs.LG2026-07

针对非平稳多变量时间序列,实现自适应预测与精准不确定性量化。

Adaptive Multi-Scale Forecasting and Gate-Localized Conformal Prediction for Multivariate Nonstationary Time Series

论文配图:Adaptive Multi-Scale Forecasting and Gate-Localized Conformal Prediction for Multivariate Nonstationary Time Series
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过可学习门控机制融合时序专家,实现多尺度动态预测。
  • 利用局部校准残差构建预测区间,覆盖率达名义水平且区间更窄。
  • 框架通用性强,适用于金融等多类非平稳时间序列场景。

我们提出ABF-T-GLCP,一种用于非平稳多变量时间序列的点预测与不确定性量化模型无关框架。核心思想是学习一个自适应的预测状态表示,用于点预测并复用以进行分位数校准。预测模块通过可学习门控机制组合不同预测时域的时序专家,并利用跨相关序列的稀疏预测迁移优化结果。不确定性模块采用门控局部化分位数校准(GLCP),结合学习到的门控状态与时间近似性,选择局部相关的校准残差,从而将不确定性校准与预测模型所用的预测状态耦合。共享表示使点预测与预测区间能一致适应随时间演化的动态特性,同时保持分位数校准的模型无关性,并在温和稳定性条件下实现近似局部覆盖率。在大规模高频商品预测基准上的实验显示,该方法在点预测精度上持续提升,预测区间显著变窄,且经验覆盖率接近名义水平。额外结果表明,该框架可推广至初始金融应用之外的多种场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose ABF-T-GLCP, a model-agnostic framework for forecasting and uncertainty quantification in nonstationary multivariate time series. The central idea is to learn an adaptive predictive state representation for point forecasting and reuse it for conformal calibration. The forecasting module combines horizon-specific temporal experts through a learned gate and refines predictions using sparse predictive transfer across related series. The uncertainty module, Gate-Localized Conformal Prediction (GLCP), uses the learned gate state, together with temporal recency, to select locally relevant calibration residuals, thereby coupling uncertainty calibration to the predictive regimes used by the forecasting model. This shared representation allows point forecasts and prediction intervals to adapt consistently under evolving temporal dynamics while retaining the model-agnostic nature of conformal prediction and yielding approximate local coverage under mild stability conditions. Experiments on a large-scale high-frequency commodity forecasting benchmark show consistent gains in point forecasting accuracy and substantially narrower prediction intervals with empirical coverage close to the nominal level. Additional results indicate that the framework extends beyond the motivating financial application.

时间序列不确定性量化自适应预测分位数校准

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