arXiv:2607.23370cs.LGcs.CE2026-07

根据市场波动状态动态调整情绪与技术指标的融合权重,提升比特币短期价格预测准确率。

Bitcoin Price Direction Prediction via Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Fusion of Social Sentiment and Technical Features

论文配图:Bitcoin Price Direction Prediction via Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Fusion of Social Sentiment and Technical Features
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用24小时波动率划分市场稳定与波动状态,动态调节情绪与价格特征的融合权重。
  • 在3小时和6小时预测中,宏观F1分别达0.5474和0.5513,优于静态融合模型。
  • 适合关注高频金融预测、多模态融合与行为金融建模的研究者与量化从业者。

比特币在亚日时间尺度上的价格预测是计算金融中的难题。其收益率分布具有厚尾特征,动态非平稳,且价格发现受Reddit和Twitter社交讨论影响。传统方法将价格技术特征(OHLCV)与情绪信息静态拼接,融合权重固定,与行为金融学观点不符——零售情绪在波动期更具预测力,平静期则噪声大。本文提出一种状态感知的多模态学习框架(RAML),根据滚动24小时波动率将数据划分为稳定与波动两类市场状态,通过可学习的Sigmoid门控机制动态调整情绪嵌入与价格嵌入的权重:波动期更信任情绪信号,稳定期侧重价格动态。在3,491条每小时观测数据(2024年7月-2025年9月)上评估,结合比特币OHLCV数据与/r/Bitcoin FinBERT情绪分析。对比四种模型(仅价格的BiLSTM、仅情绪分类器、静态拼接的BiLSTM、RAML),在3小时与6小时预测窗口下进行消融实验,验证各模块必要性。RAML在3小时与6小时的宏平均F1分别为0.5474与0.5513,3小时AUC最高达0.5084,显示更好校准性。消融实验表明,任一组件缺失均导致性能下降,尤其以静态拼接替代自适应加权使6小时召回率崩溃(F1降至0.14)。结果确立了状态条件下的自适应融合是多模态金融预测的关键设计原则。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

比特币预测多模态融合情绪分析自适应加权

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