arXiv:2607.23682cs.LG2026-07

在标签稀缺下融合多源异常信号,提升股市极端波动预警效果。

Extreme Volatility Warning under Label Scarcity via Multi-Source Anomaly Fusion

论文配图:Extreme Volatility Warning under Label Scarcity via Multi-Source Anomaly Fusion
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用轻量级融合方法整合市场指标、新闻与事件数据的异常分数
  • 在沪深300上达到0.680的AUC-ROC,优于强基线模型
  • 发现中文金融新闻和全球事件数据有互补价值,英文媒体反而降低性能

极端市场波动的早期预警对金融风险管理至关重要,但可行动事件稀少、非平稳且常由外部信息冲击触发。在沪深300样本中,791个训练日仅观察到约80个正样本,导致依赖大量监督的多源模型不稳定。我们首先分析一个10万参数的分层文本-信号融合模型(HTSF),发现参数增加在此低标签环境下反而恶化性能。受此启发,提出半监督框架AAMSF(异常增强的多信号融合),通过孤立森林对市场指标、GDELT事件、中文金融新闻与英文媒体数据计算异常得分,并采用轻量级Ridge融合。进一步引入时间扩展版本T-AAMSF,实现多日异常累积。在2018–2023年沪深300数据上,AAMSF测试AUC-ROC达0.680,优于最强无监督基线(0.630)和神经基线(0.588),T-AAMSF将PR-AUC提升至0.291。消融实验揭示显著的源不对称性:GDELT与国内金融新闻提供互补风险信号,而英文媒体持续降低性能,验证噪声下学习加权不可靠。结果表明,在标签稀缺场景下,异常几何结构与数据源可靠性比监督表征能力更为关键。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Early warning of extreme market volatility is central to financial risk management, but actionable events are rare, nonstationary, and often triggered by exogenous information shocks. In our CSI~300 setting, only $\sim$80 positive samples are observed across 791 training days, making heavily supervised multi-source models unstable. We first analyze a 100K-parameter hierarchical text-signal fusion model (HTSF) and find that added parameterization hurts in this low-label regime. Motivated by this failure, we propose \textbf{AAMSF} (Anomaly-Augmented Multi-Signal Fusion), a semisupervised framework that combines Isolation Forest anomaly scores over market indicators, GDELT events, Chinese financial news, and English media with lightweight Ridge score fusion. We further introduce \textbf{T-AAMSF}, a temporal extension for multi-day anomaly accumulation. On CSI~300 (2018--2023), AAMSF achieves test AUC-ROC \textbf{0.680}, outperforming the strongest unsupervised baseline (0.630) and neural baseline (0.588), while T-AAMSF improves PR-AUC to 0.291. Ablations reveal strong source asymmetry: GDELT and domestic financial news provide complementary risk signals, whereas English media consistently reduces performance, and learned weighting is unreliable under validation noise. These results suggest an empirical design principle for label-scarce financial risk warning: robust anomaly geometry and source reliability can matter more than supervised representation capacity.

金融风控异常检测多源融合小样本

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