arXiv:2607.23880cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

用物理约束神经网络预测农田氧化亚氮排放,提升跨区域泛化能力。

Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Predicting Nitrous Oxide Flux

论文配图:Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Predicting Nitrous Oxide Flux
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于过程模型方程构建物理残差,约束神经网络学习生物地球化学合理性。
  • 在多站点数据上平均R²达0.411,显著优于未校准的Cycles模型(R²=0.01)。
  • 物理约束虽降低同区域精度,但大幅提高跨站点泛化稳定性,适合农业碳排放建模。

氧化亚氮(N₂O)是21世纪主导的臭氧消耗物质,也是人为温室气体第三大贡献者,因其高增温潜势和长大气寿命,超过70%排放源于农业活动。当前预测方法包括基于过程的模型(如DayCent、Cycles)及传统人工智能模型,但物理信息神经网络(PINNs)在该领域的应用仍不充分。本文基于DayCent系列模型的机理方程,构建了可追溯文献的物理残差,并在覆盖美国四个地理区域的农业数据集上训练基于MLP的PINN。在所有物理损失权重λ值下,该模型均显著优于未校准的Cycles模拟(R²=0.01),其基线模型在十次随机种子下平均R²为0.411。物理约束在保留验证中导致性能下降,低λ时轻微、高λ时显著;但在留一区域验证中持续提升性能并降低波动性。这表明物理约束以牺牲分布内准确性为代价,增强分布外鲁棒性,使模型在陌生土壤条件下保持生物地球化学合理性——尽管跨站点泛化仍具挑战,在独立测试站点上所有种子与λ值下均出现负R²。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Nitrous oxide (N$_2$O) is the dominant ozone-depleting substance emitted in the 21st century, and the third largest contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gases due to its high potency and long atmospheric lifetime, with more than 70% of N$_2$O emissions occurring as a result of agricultural processes. Current approaches to predicting N$_2$O flux emissions include process-based models such as DayCent and Cycles, as well as classical AI models, but the application of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to predicting N$_2$O flux emissions is largely underexplored. Our paper draws upon the mechanistic equations that underlie the DayCent family of process-based models to construct a rigorously derived, literature-traceable physics residual. We then build and train an MLP-based PINN on a multi-site agricultural dataset spanning four geographically distinct US agricultural sites. Across all tested values of the physics loss weighting hyperparameter $λ$, our PINN consistently and substantially outperformed uncalibrated Cycles simulation (R$^2=0.01$), with our MLP baseline achieving mean R$^2=0.411$ across ten random seeds. Physics constraints consistently degrade model performance in holdout validation, with marginal degradation at low $λ$ and significant degradation at high $λ$, but consistently improve model performance and reduce performance variability in leave-one-site-out validation. This suggests that physics constraints sacrifice in-distribution accuracy for out-of-distribution robustness, anchoring the model toward biogeochemically plausible behavior on unfamiliar soil conditions --- though cross-site generalization remains challenging, with negative R$^2$ across all seeds and $λ$ values on our geographically distinct held-out site.

氧化亚氮神经网络物理约束农业排放

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