arXiv:2607.24168cs.LGcs.ET2026-07

用深度学习提前预警交通事故高发点,让交通管理从被动应对变主动预防。

Forecasting the Emergence and Evolution of Crash Hotspots: A Unified Deep Learning Framework for Proactive Traffic Safety

论文配图:Forecasting the Emergence and Evolution of Crash Hotspots: A Unified Deep Learning Framework for Proactive Traffic Safety
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建统一模型HERALD,结合卷积与注意力机制预测热点演变。
  • 在威斯康星州6个县中,预测准确率超越5个基准模型。
  • 可提前预警新热点,适合交通安全部门做主动干预。

道路交通事故仍是公共安全的重大威胁,其危害集中于事故高发区。然而,这些高发区并非固定地点,而是随时间演变的事件:在路口或主干道悄然出现,持续数周后消退,又在别处重现。依赖历史事故地图的执法措施往往滞后,只能巡查昨日热点,而忽视正在形成的明日风险。打破这一延迟需要三项能力:实时识别热点初现、预测下周热点位置、追踪每个热点生命周期。本文提出统一深度学习框架HERALD(Hotspot Emergence, Risk Anticipation, and Life-cycle Dynamics),仅用一个全州级模型实现三者。该模型将各县近期事故数据转化为每周风险图,并通过CNN-Transformer混合专家结构预测未来,兼顾城市密集区与农村稀疏路段。预测结果基于长期地理分布,受近期事故自激效应强化,并明确标注新热点即将出现的位置。随着时间推移,每个热点都有清晰的生命轨迹:从诞生、发展、稳定到衰亡。在六组异构的威斯康星州县区中,HERALD的预测精度高于五个同训练基线,热点定位最准,且能提前发现潜在风险。单一可调参数可在准确性和敏感性间权衡,适用于不同部署需求。该成果使事故热点管理从回顾历史转向预判未来。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Road crashes remain among the gravest threats to public safety, and preventing them is a defining task of transportation systems worldwide. Much of that harm concentrates at hotspots, yet a hotspot is less a place than an episode; it emerges quietly at an intersection or along an arterial, intensifies for weeks, then subsides, only to reappear elsewhere. Enforcement guided by maps of past crashes inevitably trails this cycle, patrolling yesterday's hotspots while tomorrow's form unwatched. Breaking that lag requires three capabilities at once: detecting hotspots as they are born, forecasting where they will sit next week, and following each one through its life. We introduce HERALD (Hotspot Emergence, Risk Anticipation, and Life-cycle Dynamics), a unified deep learning framework that provides all three from a single statewide model. HERALD distills each county's recent crash history into weekly risk maps and forecasts the next with a CNN--Transformer, whose mixture-of-experts lets one model serve dense urban cores and sparse rural corridors alike. Each forecast is anchored in the county's long-run crash geography, sharpened by the self-exciting effect of recent crashes, and paired with explicit warnings of where new hotspots are about to appear. Followed over time, every hotspot acquires a legible life story, from birth through growth and stability to decline and death. Across six heterogeneous Wisconsin counties, HERALD forecasts more accurately than five identically trained baselines, locates hotspots most precisely, and flags emerging risks before they take hold. A single adjustable setting trades accuracy for extra sensitivity where deployment demands it. The result shifts hotspot management from mapping the past to anticipating the future.

交通预测深度学习安全预警

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