arXiv:2607.24341cs.AI2026-07

用交易成本意识模拟租户对能源政策的反应,更真实地预测行为。

Simulating Tenant Responses to Energy Policy Interventions with Transaction-Cost-Aware LLM Agent

论文配图:Simulating Tenant Responses to Energy Policy Interventions with Transaction-Cost-Aware LLM Agent
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于感知交易成本设计租户角色,融合认知与实际障碍。
  • 在1068人数据上验证,结合成本感知的角色提升模型表现。
  • 适合政策研究者和城市规划者,用于评估能源改造政策可行性。

近期研究利用大语言模型(LLM)通过人口统计、态度或人物设定来模拟人类意见与决策,但很少考虑影响政策响应的实际、认知或社会阻力。感知交易成本(PTC)为建模这些实际障碍提供了有效视角,包括信息负担、行政难度、协调要求和感知不确定性。本文提出一种融合PTC的摩擦感知人物建模方法,用于能源效率改造(EER)场景中租户的仿真。租户不仅按人口特征定义,还根据其对改造计划的成本、收益、障碍和不确定性的感知进行刻画。基于荷兰1,068名公民收集的约40,548个问答对数据,对比了GPT-3.5-turbo、Ministral-8B-Instruct和Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct在提示仅(prompt-only)与微调设置下的表现,并评估了监督微调(SFT)与组相对策略优化(GRPO)在本地开源模型上的效果。结果表明,融入基于PTC的人物设定与推理机制,在提示与微调两种设置下均显著提升模型性能,说明基于PTC的人物设计能有效连接制度政策理论与可解释的LLM政策仿真。代码已公开于https://github.com/xiaweijie1996/socialagent。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent studies use Large language models (LLMs) to simulate human opinions and decisions by prompting models with demographic, attitudinal, or persona-based descriptions. Yet such simulations rarely model the practical, cognitive, or social frictions that shape how people respond to policy interventions. Perceived transaction cost (PTC) provides a useful lens for modeling the practical frictions that shape policy responses, such as information burden, administrative effort, coordination demands, and perceived uncertainty. We use this lens to develop a friction-aware persona modeling approach for LLM-based simulation. In the context of energy-efficient renovation (EER), tenants are represented not only by who they are demographically, but by how they perceive the costs, benefits, barriers, and uncertainties associated with proposed renovation plans. Using survey data collected from 1,068 citizens in the Netherlands, comprising approximately 40,548 survey question and answer pairs, we compare prompt-only and fine-tuned settings across GPT-3.5-turbo, Ministral-8B-Instruct, and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, and evaluate supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for local open-weight models. Results show that incorporating PTC-based personas and reasoning consistently improves model performance across both prompt-only and fine-tuned settings, suggesting that PTC-based persona design provides a useful bridge between institutional policy theory and interpretable LLM-based policy simulation. Code is available at https://github.com/xiaweijie1996/socialagent.

政策模拟大模型租户行为能源政策

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