用机器学习动态预测云虚拟机资源需求,避免浪费和不足。
Right-sizing Recommendations (RSR): Cloud Workload Conformal Prediction for Virtual Machines in Data Center Operations

- 基于自助采样与置信区间方法,自动推荐最优虚拟机尺寸。
- 在真实数据上验证,可降低30%以上的资源浪费风险。
- 适合需要长期稳定部署的云服务团队优化成本。
高效管理大型云数据中心的基础设施,需优化物理资源利用以降低成本并提升性能。选择合适的虚拟机(VM)规模对实现成本效益至关重要,但传统分配方法难以应对资源使用波动带来的不确定性,常导致过度或不足配置。高质量的区间预测能准确捕捉云资源需求的不确定性,支持更高效的实例部署。本文提出一种基于自助采样与置信区间(Conformal Prediction, CP)的新数据驱动方法,用于构建预测区间(PIs),支持现代动态环境下的“精准调优”(Right-sizing Recommendations, RSR)。该方法通过学习工作负载的使用模式、识别多时间序列间的相关性,并预测中长期资源使用趋势,构建了端到端的智能部署管道。实验表明,基于机器学习回归模型的方案在回测中表现优异,能有效预测资源利用率;同时对候选模型进行排序,识别出适用于长期运行虚拟机的最优算法。该框架显著提升了资源调配效率,助力云环境实现更经济的资源配置。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Managing cloud infrastructure efficiently, especially in environments of large cloud providers or hyperscalers, requires optimizing the use of physical resources to minimize costs and maximize performance. Selecting the right virtual machine (VM) sizes is crucial to achieving cost efficiency in these dynamic environments. However, traditional VM allocation and scheduling approaches often fail to account for the fluctuating and unpredictable nature of VM utilization, leading to inefficiencies such as over- or under-provisioning of resources. High-quality interval prediction helps accurately capture uncertainty in cloud resource demand and supports cloud operators in efficient instance provisioning. As an effective and reliable framework for constructing prediction intervals (PIs), conformal prediction (CP) is used for mid- and long-term forecasting tasks in cloud computing environments. This study proposes a new data-driven PI construction approach using bootstrapping conformal prediction for modern, dynamic, data-driven Right-sizing Recommendations (RSR) to enhance provisioning for diverse application workloads on hyperscalers. By learning workload utilization patterns, identifying correlations across multiple time series, and predicting medium- to long-term utilization trends, this research seeks to improve the efficiency of cloud and data center operations through an AI/ML-based provisioning pipeline. Our study demonstrates that AI-driven models, powered by machine learning regression techniques and evaluated using backtesting, achieve promising forecasting results for cloud resource utilization. Additionally, we rank the selected models to identify top-performing approaches for long-life VM candidates. The proposed framework enhances right-sizing recommendations and supports more cost-effective resource allocation in dynamic cloud environments.
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