用气象扩散机制提升核辐射预测精度,兼顾时空不规则分布问题。
Atmospheric Diffusion-Guided Spatio-Temporal Transformer for Nuclear Radiation Forecasting

- 引入大气扩散模块,将气象驱动的辐射传播物理规律作为模型先验。
- 在两个数据集上优于13个基线,突发变化预测误差降低19.1%。
- 适合应急响应、环境监测和公共安全决策者使用。
核辐射是原子衰变释放的能量,对公众健康与环境构成持续威胁,福岛事故及近期处理水排放加剧了社会关注。现代监测网络在数千个站点记录辐射水平与气象数据,为全国范围预测提供了可能,可支持应急响应、农业建议与日常安全决策。然而,将海量监测数据转化为可靠预测面临三大挑战:其一,各站点时间序列高度非平稳,受放射性衰变、气象波动与人为干预影响;其二,监测站空间分布极不均匀,约78%的日本站点集中在不足6%的国土面积内,主要位于福岛附近,破坏了传统图神经网络的假设;其三,辐射随风、温、湿等气象条件通过大气传输过程协同演化,纯数据驱动模型难以仅从观测中捕捉此复杂机制。本文提出NRFormer+,一种用于全国核辐射预测的时空变换器。该模型结合非平稳时间注意力与密度自适应空间注意力,并引入新的大气扩散模块,估算气象如何驱动辐射扩散,将这一物理信号作为架构先验注入网络。在两个数据集上,NRFormer+超越全部13个基线,突发变化的MAE最高降低19.1%,推理延迟相当。代码与数据集已公开于https://github.com/tfeilyu/NRFormer_Plus。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Nuclear radiation, the energy released during atomic decay, poses persistent risks to public health and the environment, and concerns have only grown since the Fukushima accident and the recent commencement of treated-water discharge. Modern monitoring networks now record radiation levels and accompanying weather conditions at thousands of stations, opening the door to nationwide forecasting that can inform emergency response, agricultural advisories, and routine public-safety decisions. However, turning this abundance of monitoring data into reliable forecasts is difficult for three reasons. First, the time series at each station are highly non-stationary, shaped by radioactive decay, weather variability, and irregular human interventions. Second, monitoring stations are severely unevenly distributed in space. Roughly 78% of Japan's stations sit in less than 6% of the country, clustered near Fukushima, which breaks the assumptions of standard graph-based models. Third, radiation co-evolves with heterogeneous context such as wind, temperature, and humidity through atmospheric transport processes that purely data-driven models struggle to capture from observations alone. In this study, we introduce NRFormer+, a spatio-temporal Transformer for nationwide nuclear radiation forecasting. NRFormer+ couples non-stationary temporal attention and density-adaptive spatial attention with a new atmospheric diffusion module that estimates how meteorology drives radiation dispersion and injects this physical signal into the network as an architectural prior. NRFormer+ delivers state-of-the-art accuracy on both datasets across all 13 baselines, reducing sudden-change MAE by up to 19.1% over the strongest baseline at comparable inference latency. Our code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/tfeilyu/NRFormer_Plus.
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