arXiv:2607.24809eess.SPcs.LG2026-07

基于物理引导与自适应编码,提升飞机压气机跨机种寿命预测准确率。

Towards Real-World RUL Prediction for Aircraft Compressors Under Variable Conditions with Physics-Guided Domain Adaptation

  • 用物理规律筛选出稳定退化指标,通过时序编码捕捉生命周期特征
  • 在不同飞机间转移时仍保持高精度,且仅需早期数据即可自适应校准
  • 可为维修决策提供可信置信度,适合航空运维场景

商用飞行中飞机离心式空气压缩机的剩余使用寿命预测面临真实运行环境的挑战,其在飞行中的传感器信号叠加了真实退化过程和持续变化的工况,且无法预先假定任一通道携带可靠的退化特征。此外,基于某部分机队训练的模型在未见飞机及安装位置上泛化能力差,这一跨域问题实际影响严重但常被忽视。本文提出一种融合物理引导处理与自适应时间编码的框架:通过群体级选择识别出喘振裕度为全机队最稳定的退化指标;通过工况过滤与窗口聚合从操作噪声中恢复健康趋势,并设计两个物理启发特征(当前健康水平与累积退化速率)实现跨单元比较而无需绝对信号值;正弦位置编码提供生命周期上下文且避免数据泄露;结构化跨域评估发现编码周期不匹配是性能下降的主要原因。一种自适应再校准方案仅依赖早期观测即可估计目标单元的生命周期尺度,无需未来信息或标注目标数据。该方法在跨域转移场景下均取得显著且一致的精度提升,同时采用高斯过程回归提供校准后的不确定性估计,支持风险驱动的维护调度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Remaining useful life prediction for aircraft centrifugal air compressors in real commercial operations poses challenges that controlled benchmark datasets do not expose. In-flight sensor signals superimpose genuine degradation on continuously varying operating conditions, and no channel can be assumed a priori to carry a reliable degradation signature. Moreover, models trained on one subset of a fleet generalize poorly to unseen aircraft and installation positions, a cross-domain problem of underappreciated practical severity. This paper presents a framework combining physics-guided processing with adaptive temporal encoding. A population-level selection procedure identifies surge margin as the most consistent degradation indicator across the fleet. Operating regime filtering and windowed aggregation recover the health trend from operational noise, and two physically motivated features encoding current health level and cumulative degradation rate enable cross-unit comparison without absolute signal values. Sinusoidal positional encoding provides lifecycle context without data leakage, and a structured cross-domain evaluation identifies encoding period mismatch as the primary mechanism of performance loss under fleet transfer. An adaptive recalibration scheme estimates each target unit's lifecycle scale from early observations alone, requiring no future information or labeled target data. The approach yields substantial, consistent gains in cross-domain accuracy across transfer scenarios of increasing domain distance, and a Gaussian Process Regression model further provides calibrated uncertainty estimates supporting risk-informed maintenance scheduling.

寿命预测跨域迁移航空运维物理引导

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