arXiv:2607.24892cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

用大模型做预测规划,零训练实现文本条件时间序列预测

LLM as Forecasting Planner: Training-Free Text Conditioning for Time-Series Foundation Models

  • 将预测视为基于TSFM轨迹的规划问题,由大模型决策选择
  • 在多个数据集上显著提升预测精度,优于基线方法
  • 无需重训练,适合快速部署于不同模型组合

文本条件时间序列预测需同时处理数值历史与自然语言上下文,以捕捉过去无法反映的事件与约束。时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)具备强数值预测能力,大语言模型(LLMs)擅长文本推理,但直接让LLM生成或修改预测值会破坏TSFM捕获的时间结构。本文提出 c{}(LLM as Forecasting Planner),将预测建模为对TSFM生成轨迹的规划过程:冻结的TSFM作为模拟器生成数值延续,而LLM作为策略与价值函数指导候选选择并评估轨迹与上下文的一致性。该框架不需重训练任一模型,采用蒙特卡洛树搜索(MCTS)在预测时域进行搜索,使用一个排序器LLM作策略,一个裁判LLM作价值函数。在Context-is-Key和Time-MMD两个数据集上,使用两种TSFM骨干(Chronos和TimesFM)及四种LLMs的实验表明, c{}在不同模型配置下均带来稳定提升,验证了序列搜索作为零训练文本条件预测的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Text-conditioned time-series forecasting predicts a series from both its numerical history and natural-language context, allowing forecasts to account for events and constraints that the past alone cannot reveal. This requires both reliable numerical forecasting and the ability to interpret contextual information. Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide strong numerical forecasts, while large language models (LLMs) can reason over text, but combining their strengths remains challenging because asking an LLM to generate or revise forecast values directly can distort the temporal structure captured by the TSFM. We instead formulate forecasting as a planning problem over TSFM-generated trajectories. The frozen TSFM acts as a simulator that proposes numerical continuations, while the LLM acts as a policy and value function that guides candidate selection and evaluates completed trajectories against the context. We instantiate this as \rc{} (\textbf{L}LM \textbf{A}s \textbf{F}orecasting \textbf{P}lanner), a training-free framework that bridges the modality gap without retraining either model, using Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) over the forecast horizon with a \emph{Ranker} LLM as policy and a \emph{Judge} LLM as value function. Experiments on Context-is-Key and Time-MMD across two TSFM backbones (Chronos and TimesFM) and four LLMs show that \rc{} delivers consistent improvements across model choices, supporting sequential search as an effective training-free approach to text-conditioned forecasting.

时间序列大模型预测规划零训练

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