医学世界模型让AI能模拟患者状态变化,助力临床决策。
Medical world models in healthcare: foundations, applications, and challenges for trustworthy clinical translation

- 用动态状态表示与干预模拟,构建可演化的患者数字孪生
- 初步验证了治疗路径预测和干预对比的可行性
- 适合关注临床AI可信转化的研究者与医疗系统设计者
医学世界模型通过表征动态患者状态并建模其随时间演变及对临床干预的响应,推动医疗AI从静态预测向动态推演发展。本综述通过结构化文献合成与可复现证据映射,筛选1,455条记录,整理出98项来源,其中14项符合严格实证定义。该领域围绕四大能力:患者状态表示、时序动态建模、干预条件下的仿真、医生监督下的规划。应用涵盖医学影像、长期电子病历、治疗反应建模、生理与多模态状态分析、超声与手术交互、人群与医疗系统仿真;临床数字孪生被视为跨领域集成框架。当前研究提供早期技术可行性证据,可在轨迹预测与干预方案比较中实现,但多数仍为回顾性、任务特定或前临床研究。证据基础受限于纵向干预数据不全、动作语义不一致、因果可识别性弱、长周期误差累积、不确定性估计不足及外部验证缺乏。临床转化需依赖精准干预表示、强因果与机制基础、校准的轨迹级不确定性、安全约束规划以及针对临床有意义终点的前瞻性多中心验证。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Medical world models offer a framework for extending medical artificial intelligence beyond static prediction by representing evolving patient states and modelling how they change over time and in response to clinical interventions. This Review defines the conceptual boundaries, technical foundations, application domains, and evidence requirements of the field through a structured narrative synthesis with reproducible evidence mapping. We screened 1,455 unique records and assembled a corpus of 98 sources, including 14 studies that met a strict empirical definition of a medical world model. The field is organised around four capabilities: patient state representation, temporal dynamics modelling, intervention-conditioned simulation, and clinician-supervised planning. Evidence spans medical imaging, longitudinal electronic health records, treatment response modelling, physiological and multimodal state modelling, ultrasound and surgical interaction, and population and health-system simulation; clinical digital twins are treated as a cross-cutting integration framework. Current studies provide early evidence of technical feasibility for trajectory forecasting and comparison of candidate interventions, but most remain retrospective, task-specific, or preclinical. The evidence base is further limited by incomplete longitudinal intervention data, inconsistent action semantics, limited causal identifiability, long-horizon error accumulation, inadequate uncertainty estimation, and limited external validation. Clinical translation will therefore depend on precise intervention representations, robust causal and mechanistic grounding, calibrated trajectory-level uncertainty, safety-constrained planning, and prospective multicentre validation against clinically meaningful endpoints.
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