arXiv:2607.25989cs.NIcs.LG2026-07

提出主动预测网络故障并定位根源的新框架,解决多系统故障耦合导致的误判难题。

Untangling Co-Drift: Proactive Multi-Intent Failure Prediction and Root-Cause Disambiguation for Self-Driving Networks

论文配图:Untangling Co-Drift: Proactive Multi-Intent Failure Prediction and Root-Cause Disambiguation for Self-Driving Networks
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建三类核心功能耦合模型,用混合专家架构预判故障
  • 在真实边缘-云测试中实现高精度故障检测与提前预警
  • 支持逐级诊断和根因定位,适合自智网络运维场景

自智网络依赖监控、分析与执行三大功能的紧密协同。本文将这三者视为连续遥测、实时分析和程序化执行三个宏观意图,并将其健康状态形式化为需持续满足的意图。一个关键但未被充分研究的挑战是:任一意图中的单一故障会通过因果耦合引发共漂移,进而导致其余意图出现连锁性症状异常。现有被动方法难以区分真因意图与受害意图,且依赖阈值触发,缺乏主动修复时间。本文提出MILD框架,将意图保障从被动漂移检测转向主动故障预测。基于三宏意图建模,MILD采用教师增强的混合专家架构,结合联合优化目标,同时实现故障预测与根因归因。该框架通过SHAP可解释性提供KPI级诊断,并利用多时序建模动态评估故障紧急程度。在三个逐步逼近现实的环境中验证:从统计基准、微服务应用到基于SDN的边缘-云测试床,MILD均表现出高故障检测率、强修复前瞻性和精准的意图级根因辨识能力,可有效支撑下一代自治网络的闭环保障。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The vision of self-driving networks that monitor, reason, and act upon themselves with minimal human intervention relies on tightly coupled monitoring, analytics, and actuation functions. In this work, we treat these functions as three operational macro-intents: continuous telemetry, real-time analytics, and programmatic actuation, and formalize the health of each function as an intent that the network must continuously satisfy. A critical, yet underexplored, challenge stems from the causal coupling among these intents, where a singular fault within one macro-intent propagates as a co-drift and subsequently triggers cascading, symptomatic anomalies across the remaining intents. This ambiguity makes it exceedingly difficult for existing, reactive approaches to distinguish the true root-cause intent from symptomatic victim intents, and their reliance on threshold-crossing detection leaves insufficient time for proactive remediation. We introduce MILD, a novel framework that reformulates intent assurance from reactive drift detection to proactive failure prediction. Grounded in our three-macro-intent formulation of the self-driving control loop, MILD employs a teacher-augmented Mixture-of-Experts architecture with a hybrid objective that jointly optimizes intent failure prediction and root-cause attribution. MILD enables KPI-level diagnostics via SHAP explainability and dynamic intent failure urgency estimation via multi-horizon modeling. Our extensive evaluation of MILD across three environments of increasing realism, from a controlled statistical benchmark, to a microservices application, to an SDN-based edge-to-cloud testbed, demonstrates that MILD achieves high failure detection rates, strong remediation lead times, and accurate intent-level root-cause disambiguation. This positions MILD as a practical enabler of closed-loop assurance in next-generation autonomous networks.

自智网络故障预测根因分析多意图协同

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