arXiv:2607.26038cs.LG2026-07

跨机构协同预测设备故障,不共享数据也能精准估算剩余寿命。

Collaborative System Failure Prognostics via Federated Longitudinal-Survival Modeling

论文配图:Collaborative System Failure Prognostics via Federated Longitudinal-Survival Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用可分离的离散时间风险模型,实现分布式训练而不泄露原始数据。
  • 在四个航空发动机数据集上,性能优于本地训练,接近中心化训练水平。
  • 适合需保护隐私的工业场景,如多工厂协同设备健康管理。

生存分析中的时间到事件建模为从纵向状态监测数据中估计时变故障风险、可靠性及剩余使用寿命(RUL)提供了系统框架。然而,由于传感器轨迹和故障时间记录通常分布在不同组织或运行站点,受隐私或产权限制无法集中整合,导致其在分布式预测中的应用面临挑战。传统Cox比例风险模型依赖全局风险集的非可分部分似然,难以在标准联邦学习协议下直接优化。本文提出一种用于协同系统故障预测的联邦纵向生存建模框架。该框架结合纵向传感器表征学习与客户端可分离的离散时间风险目标函数,使多个客户端可在不共享原始传感器数据或个体故障记录的前提下协同训练预测模型。从多变量传感器历史中提取的时变表征用于估计区间特定的故障风险、可靠性曲线及系统RUL。在四个C-MAPSS航空发动机退化子集上,模拟去中心化环境下的实验表明,所提框架在异质工况和多种故障模式下,性能始终优于孤立本地训练,且与集中式训练表现相当。结果证明了联邦纵向生存建模在协作式、数据感知的状态监测与系统故障预测中的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time-to-event modeling provides a systematic framework for estimating time-dependent failure risk, reliability, and remaining useful life (RUL) from longitudinal condition monitoring data. However, applying these models to distributed prognostics remains challenging because sensor trajectories and failure-time records are often stored across organizations or operational sites and cannot be centrally pooled due to privacy or proprietary constraints. Moreover, the classical Cox proportional hazards model relies on a nonseparable partial likelihood involving global risk sets, making direct optimization difficult under standard federated learning protocols. This paper presents a federated longitudinal-survival modeling framework for collaborative system failure prognostics. The proposed framework combines longitudinal sensor representation learning with a client-separable discrete-time hazard objective, enabling multiple clients to collaboratively train a prognostic model without sharing raw sensor measurements or individual failure records. Time-dependent representations extracted from multivariate sensor histories are used to estimate interval-specific failure hazards, reliability curves, and system RUL. Experiments on the four C-MAPSS turbofan engine degradation subsets under simulated decentralized settings demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently improves prognostic performance over isolated local training while maintaining performance comparable to centralized training across heterogeneous operating conditions and failure modes. These results demonstrate the potential of federated longitudinal-survival modeling for collaborative, data-aware condition monitoring and system failure prognostics.

故障预测联邦学习生存分析

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