将水文模型转为可解释神经网络,提升对流域水循环的模拟精度。
From Conceptual Hydrologic Models to Conceptually Interpretable Neural Networks: A Snow-Water Mass-Conserving-Perceptron Framework for Discovering Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Representations
- 用物理约束的神经网络重构雪水模型,保持与传统模型相当的预测能力。
- 两状态模型达到0.89的中位KGEss,五状态模型提升至0.90,增益趋缓。
- 模型参数更少且精度相当,适合需高效、可解释水文建模的研究者。
质量守恒感知器(MCP)建立了一种新范式,将概念性水文模型转化为物理约束、概念可解释的神经网络。本文构建雪水型MCP网络框架,在513个CAMELS-US流域上进行评估。首先将耦合的两状态SOIL-MCP与SNOWMCP模型重构为质量守恒神经网络,结果表明水文模型与神经网络形式在预测性能上相当。接着分析双状态HYDROMCP架构中的节点间状态信息共享,并评估由三种可解释的MCP单元构成的单层网络,状态数从1到5不等。全美范围内,中位KGEss从单状态的0.82升至双状态的0.89,五状态达0.90,表明超过两状态后增益递减。基于盆地特异性选择的MCP与LSTM模型均取得0.90的中位KGEss,但MCP平均参数更少。结合AIC与KGE的筛选方法,识别出兼顾精度与复杂度的紧凑、有向图结构。这些分析为确定水文表征所需状态数量、类型及交互提供了实证基础。未来研究应测试联合训练对多种水文响应(如流量、积雪水当量、地下水储量)的建模效果。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) establishes a modeling paradigm in which conceptual hydrologic models can be reformulated as physically constrained, conceptually interpretable neural networks. Here, we develop a snow-water MCP network framework and evaluate it across 513 CAMELS-US basins. We first recast a coupled two-state SOIL-MCP and SNOWMCP conceptual model as a mass-conserving neural network and show that the hydrologic-model and neural-network formulations achieve comparable predictive performance. We then examine cross-node state-information sharing within two-state HYDROMCP architectures and evaluate broader single-layer networks constructed from three types of interpretable MCP units with one to five states. Across CONUS, the median KGEss increases from 0.82 for one-state networks to 0.89 for two-state networks and 0.90 for five-state networks, suggesting diminishing aggregate gains beyond two states. Basin-specific MCP and LSTM selection yields the same median KGEss of 0.90, while the selected MCP networks use fewer parameters on average. Complementary AIC- and KGE-based selection identifies compact, basin-specific directed-graph representations that balance predictive accuracy and model complexity. These analyses provide an empirical basis for identifying the numbers, types, and interactions of states needed for hydrologic representation. Future studies should test joint training against multiple hydrologic responses, such as streamflow, snow water equivalent, and groundwater storage.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。