arXiv:2607.26588cs.AI2026-07

用智能体模拟社会经济系统,支持动态互动与政策推演。

Eco3S: Complex Socio-Economic System Simulation via Agent-Based Models

论文配图:Eco3S: Complex Socio-Economic System Simulation via Agent-Based Models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 智能体与环境双向进化,生成真实行为模式
  • 基于因果模型实现灵活干预,支持多种推演任务
  • 自动优化实验设计,适合经济研究与政策分析

大型语言模型的快速发展重新激发了对基于智能体建模(ABM)的兴趣。然而,现有基于大语言模型的ABM研究面临三大挑战:建模动态演变的智能体-环境交互、支持灵活的反事实推理、自动化仿真工作流以支撑科研。本文提出Eco3S,一个面向经济研究与政策分析的社会经济系统仿真框架,通过三项核心机制应对上述挑战:(1) 共演化环境设计,即智能体与环境之间双向反馈,生成真实的涌现行为;(2) 结构因果仿真,受结构因果模型(SCM)启发,支持多样化因果推断任务的灵活干预;(3) 仿真-分析-优化范式,基于前序仿真结果迭代优化实验设计。在多个经济场景下的实验验证了Eco3S的有效性,可复现运河衰落、治理起源、信息传播等多项经典研究与跨领域现象。额外结果进一步展示了其可扩展性与泛化能力,凸显其在严谨经济研究与政策制定中的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs) has renewed interest in agent-based modeling (ABM). However, current LLM-based ABM research faces several key challenges: modeling evolving agent-environment interactions, enabling flexible counterfactual reasoning, and automating simulation workflows for scientific research. In this paper, we propose Eco3S, a socio-economic system simulation framework for economic research and policy analysis that addresses these challenges through three key mechanisms: (1) Co-evolving Environment Design, a bidirectional feedback loop where agents and the environment co-evolve, producing realistic emergent behaviors; (2) Structural Causal Simulation, a structural causal model (SCM)-inspired counterfactual mechanism that allows flexible interventions for diverse causal inference tasks; (3) Simulation-Analysis-Refinement Paradigm, a self-corrective mechanism that iteratively refines experimental designs based on prior simulation results. Experiments on diverse economic scenarios confirm \textit{Eco3S}'s effectiveness in replicating multiple established economic studies (canal decay, origins of governance, and information propagation) and phenomena across domains. Additional results further demonstrate its scalability and generalizability, highlighting the framework's potential for rigorous economic research and policy-making.

社会经济模拟因果推断智能体建模

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