arXiv:2607.26599cs.LG2026-07

用大模型不确定性引导因果效应估计,提升个性化干预效果预测精度。

Uncertainty-Guided LLM Semantic Augmentation for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation

论文配图:Uncertainty-Guided LLM Semantic Augmentation for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于大模型生成的语义表示,通过不确定性引导分配能力到不稳定样本。
  • 在四个基准上显著提升十种主流因果模型的异质处理效应估计性能。
  • 适合需要高精度个性化决策的医疗或营销场景,如精准医疗和定向推广。

估计异质性治疗效应是实现个性化干预(如精准医疗和定向促销)的核心。本文聚焦条件平均处理效应(CATE),这是刻画这种异质性的标准目标。即使在标准识别条件下,有限样本下的CATE估计仍需学习干扰结构以进行协变量调整和效应异质性建模,通常还需有效表示协变量X。原始数值与分类编码常隐含语义关系和高阶交互,导致联合任务局部不稳定性。一项初步研究表明,这种不稳定性源于可分离的分配侧与异质性侧通道。为此,我们提出CURL(因果不确定性引导表示学习),一种可插拔适配器,利用估计器不确定性将预训练大模型的语义能力动态分配给局部不稳定的单元。CURL通过两个角色条件提示查询冻结的大语言模型,从观测协变量构建分配侧与异质性导向的表示,并通过分路处理。在四个基准数据集上,CURL在多数设置下均优于十种基线模型;消融实验、细化动力学分析、路径重分配与探针分析验证了双通道设计的有效性与各通道功能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to targeted interventions, such as personalized promotions and precision medicine. We focus on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), a standard estimand for characterizing such heterogeneity. Even under standard identification conditions, finite-sample CATE estimation requires learning the nuisance structure for covariate adjustment and treatment-effect heterogeneity, often together with an effective representation of X. Raw numerical and categorical encodings can leave semantic relations and higher-order interactions implicit, making this joint task locally unstable. A motivating study further shows that this instability appears through partially separable assignment- and heterogeneity-side channels. Building on this observation, we propose CURL (Causal Uncertainty-guided Representation Learning), a plug-in adapter that uses estimator uncertainty to allocate pretrained semantic capacity to locally unstable units. CURL queries a frozen LLM through two role-conditioned prompts, constructs assignment- and heterogeneity-oriented representations from the observed covariates, and routes them through separated pathways. On four benchmarks, CURL improves ten host learners in most settings, while ablation, refinement-dynamics, route-reassignment, and probe analyses support the intended design and roles of the two channels.

因果推断大模型应用异质效应表示学习

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