arXiv:2607.26854cs.LGq-bio.QM2026-07

TREA-Net用迁移学习提升数据少地区登革热预测精度,适合资源有限的卫生部门。

TREA-Net: A Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for Dengue Incidence Forecasting

论文配图:TREA-Net: A Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for Dengue Incidence Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过环境SIR模型投影+轻量残差修正,实现跨区域知识迁移。
  • 在墨西哥、马来西亚8周预测中,10种设置下9次优于基线模型。
  • 仅需78或104周目标数据,且适配不同监测点数量的系统。

准确的多周登革热预测有助于及时开展媒介控制、疫情准备和医疗资源配置。然而,新建立的监测系统往往缺乏训练可靠神经网络所需的历史数据。尽管预训练时间序列模型可实现零样本预测,但其跨领域训练可能无法捕捉本地流行病学特征。我们提出TREA-Net,一种适用于数据稀缺地区的可迁移残差流行病适应网络,用于登革热预测。TREA-Net在神经网络骨干上叠加环境时间序列易感-感染-恢复模型(ETS-SIR)的投影,并学习一个轻量级门控残差修正项,可从数据丰富地区迁移至数据稀疏地区。其节点无关设计兼容不同监测点数量的系统,目标适应仅需学习两个全局参数。我们将哥伦比亚和尼加拉瓜长期登革热监测数据的知识迁移到墨西哥和马来西亚的8周前预测,仅使用78或104周目标数据。在五种神经骨干与十种迁移设置中,TREA-Net在9种情况下优于对应基线模型,且显著提升。与TiRex(预测基础模型)结合后,在所有目标数据集上达到最低均方误差。置信区间校准进一步保持经验覆盖度的同时,使墨西哥8周预测区间宽度减少29.6%。结果表明,TREA-Net具有作为轻量级、可移植的早期预警框架潜力,适用于监测数据有限的卫生机构。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate multi-week dengue forecasting supports timely vector-control interventions, outbreak preparedness, and healthcare resource allocation. However, newly established surveillance systems often lack the historical data needed to train reliable neural forecasting models. Although pretrained time-series models offer promising zero-shot forecasts, their cross-domain training may not capture local epidemiological dynamics. We propose TREA-Net, a Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for dengue forecasting under limited data. TREA-Net augments neural forecasting backbones with projections from an Environmental Time-Series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and learns a lightweight gated residual correction transferable from data-rich to data-scarce regions. Its node-invariant design accommodates surveillance systems with different numbers of locations, while target adaptation requires learning only two global parameters. We transfer knowledge from long-running dengue surveillance in Colombia and Nicaragua to 8-week-ahead forecasting in Mexico and Malaysia using only 78 or 104 weeks of target data. Across five neural backbones and ten transfer settings, TREA-Net improves the corresponding backbone in 9 out of 10 settings, with statistically significant gains. When integrated with TiRex, a foundation model for forecasting, it achieves the lowest mean absolute error across all target datasets. Conformal prediction further maintains empirical coverage while reducing 8-week prediction-interval width by 29.6% in Mexico. These results demonstrate TREA-Net's potential as a lightweight and portable early-warning framework for health agencies with limited surveillance data.

登革热预测迁移学习轻量化模型流行病学

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