用企业关系图谱补全风险数据,让无记录企业也能评估违规风险
No Data Is Not No Risk: Visibility Aware Graph-Based Inference of Business Conduct Risk

- 基于企业股权网络构建图模型,结合关系与可见性信息推断风险
- 在无事件记录企业中仍能保持良好预测性能,准确率优于基线方法
- 适合金融风控、投资分析等需识别隐蔽风险的场景
企业行为风险监测受限于数据稀疏、分布不均和可见性偏差。已有研究显示,企业行为风险与媒体报道会通过供应链、同业及企业结构网络传播,但许多企业缺乏事件记录。因此,未报告事件可能反映的是覆盖不足,而非真实无风险。本文研究企业间关系是否能提升对未记录事件企业的未来风险预测能力,特别是对曝光度低的企业。将任务建模为公司所有权图上的正-未标记节点分类问题,有事件记录的企业作为正样本,无记录企业保持未标记状态。提出一种兼顾关系特异性消息传递与非负正-未标记学习的可见性感知图神经网络框架,以处理未标记集中潜在的正样本污染。前瞻性评估表明,该方法在排名性能上显著优于非图基及简单图基基准。结果进一步显示,图模型在无历史事件记录的企业中仍具预测价值。研究证明企业间关联结构可作为扩展风险优先级判断的补充信息。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The monitoring of business conduct risk is hindered by sparse, uneven, and visibility-biased data. Prior studies show that business conduct risk information and media coverage propagate through supply chain, peer, and corporate structure networks, yet incident records remain incomplete for many firms. As a result, the absence of reported events could reflect limited coverage rather than the absence of underlying business conduct risk. This paper examines whether inter-firm relationships can improve the prediction of future recorded conduct related incidents, particularly among firms with limited prior visibility. We formulate the task as Positive--Unlabeled node classification on a corporate ownership graph, where firms with recorded incidents are treated as labeled positives and firms without recorded incidents remain unlabeled. We then propose a visibility- and relation-aware GCNII framework that combines relation specific message passing with non-negative Positive--Unlabeled learning to account for positive contamination in the unlabeled set. In a forward-looking evaluation, the proposed approach achieved the strongest observed ranking performance relative to non-graph- and simple graph-based benchmarks. The results further show that graph-based inference retains its predictive value among firms without prior recorded incidents. These findings demonstrate the value of inter-firm relational structure as a complementary source of information for extending risk prioritization
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。