arXiv:2607.26921cs.CV2026-07

给YOLO-Pose模型加了个不确定性预测功能,让关键点更可信。

From Keypoints to Predictive Distributions: Post-Hoc Uncertainty for YOLO-Pose Models

论文配图:From Keypoints to Predictive Distributions: Post-Hoc Uncertainty for YOLO-Pose Models
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用轻量级概率头预测关键点的二维分布参数,支持输入依赖的不确定性建模。
  • 在COCO上验证,不确定性排序能有效识别不可靠关键点,学生t校准最贴近真实分布。
  • 适合需要可靠性判断的场景,如无人机着陆、机器人感知等高风险应用。

YOLO-Pose模型虽能高效定位关键点,但缺乏空间不确定性量化。本文提出一种轻量级后处理概率扩展,为训练好的YOLO-Pose模型添加以原预测为中心的双变量预测分布。具体地,通过重要性加权负对数似然训练额外的概率头,为每个关键点预测输入相关的2×2分散矩阵,再采用高斯校准(提升兼容性)或学生-t校准(保持分布真实性)。同时提出评估协议,结合分布校准诊断与平均关键点精度(AKP),用于评估关键点可靠性排序。在COCO数据集上的实验表明,学习到的不确定性可有效进行关键点可靠性排序,学生-t校准最佳拟合实测残差分布,基于不确定性的剪枝可移除不可靠关键点。核心应用演示为视觉引导飞机着陆:跑道关键点的校准协方差支持不确定性感知的位置估计与下游传感器融合。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

YOLO-Pose models provide efficient keypoint localization, but do not quantify the associated spatial uncertainty. We introduce a lightweight post-hoc probabilistic extension that augments a trained YOLO-Pose model with calibrated bivariate predictive distributions over keypoint locations, centered at the model's original predictions. Concretely, we train additional probabilistic heads with an importance-weighted negative log-likelihood to predict an input-dependent $2\times2$ dispersion matrix for each keypoint, followed by Gaussian calibration for broad downstream compatibility or Student-$t$ calibration for distributional fidelity. Complementing this, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines a suite of distributional calibration diagnostics with average keypoint precision (AKP), a keypoint-level extension of the COCO AP protocol for assessing reliability rankings. Experiments on COCO show that the learned uncertainty estimates enable effective keypoint-level reliability ranking, Student-$t$ calibration best captures the empirical residual distribution, and uncertainty-based pruning removes unreliable keypoints. A central application-level demonstration is vision-based aircraft landing, where calibrated covariances for runway keypoints support uncertainty-aware aircraft position estimation and downstream sensor fusion.

姿态估计不确定性目标检测航空应用

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