arXiv:2607.27023cs.LGcs.AI2026-07

自动确定评估大模型所需最少数据子集,提升效率与准确性。

BayesAME: Bayesian Active Model Evaluation

  • 基于贝叶斯框架,动态选择最优数据子集以减少评估开销。
  • 通过设定阈值自动停止迭代,性能波动与不确定性均低于预设标准。
  • 适合追求高精度评估且希望减少人工调参的研究者或工业应用。

在多个基准上评估大型生成模型耗时且计算成本高昂。为此,需要仅通过评估部分样本(即核心集)来估计整体性能的方法。现有方法多要求用户预先指定核心集大小,但当性能估计的准确性优先于效率时,评估方法应能自动确定反映该优先级的核心集大小。本文提出 BayesAME,一种面向自动核心集大小确定的序贯贝叶斯框架。该方法为每组历史模型表现相似的样本定义潜变量能力,并通过联合先验表达目标模型与历史模型行为相似的信念。利用后验分布推导性能估计量、量化不确定性,并基于信息增益准则选择新增样本。核心集逐次扩充,直至性能估计波动和不确定性均低于用户设定阈值。我们还提出多目标扩展,捕捉多个目标模型间的性能相关性,进一步压缩核心集规模。在多种基准上的大量实验表明,BayesAME 始终优于现有方法的序贯变体。关键分析回应了近期文献中的质疑,证实非随机核心集选择优于随机选择。最后,我们证明使用连续响应对数似然相较于传统二元评分可显著提升估计精度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Evaluating large generative models across benchmarks is time-consuming and computationally expensive. This drives the need for methods that can estimate full benchmark performance by evaluating models on only a subset of items, known as a coreset. Current literature mostly requires the practitioner to input a coreset size. However, when reliable performance estimation takes priority over efficiency, an evaluation method should also be capable of automatically determining a coreset size that reflects this priority. We introduce BayesAME, a sequential Bayesian framework specifically targeting automatic determination of the coreset size. BayesAME models performance as a random variable by defining a latent ability for each group of items sharing the same historical model performances, with a joint prior distribution encoding the belief that the target model behaves similarly to these historical models. The posterior distribution over these abilities is used to derive performance estimators, quantify performance uncertainty, and select items to add to the coreset via an information-gain criterion. The coreset is iteratively augmented until the performance estimate fluctuation and the performance uncertainty fall below their respective user-defined thresholds. We propose a multi-target extension that captures performance correlations across multiple target models to further reduce the coreset size. Through extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks, we demonstrate that BayesAME consistently outperforms sequential adaptations of existing methods. Crucially, our comprehensive analysis addresses recent skepticism in the literature, establishing that non-random coreset selection is advantageous over random selection. Finally, we highlight that leveraging continuous response log-likelihoods over traditional binary scores significantly enhances estimation accuracy.

模型评估贝叶斯方法核心集高效评估

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