arXiv:2607.27106cs.LG2026-07中稿 · KDD

用统一模型同时预测医院、区域和国家三级急诊需求,解决预测不一致问题。

Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Transformer for Coherent Emergency Department Forecasting

论文配图:Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Transformer for Coherent Emergency Department Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建分层Transformer架构,上下级预测相互约束。
  • 相比最优非分层模型,平均WAPE降低32%。
  • 适合需要跨层级协调的医疗机构与卫生部门决策者。

急诊科是医疗系统的关键入口,但常面临患者需求波动、季节性高峰及非紧急就诊带来的压力。有效的急诊规划需在多个决策层级进行预测:医院需局部需求预估以安排人员与床位,地区需协调各机构,国家则需整体容量规划。然而,现有方法多在单一层次独立预测,忽略医院、地区与国家间的层级关系,导致预测结果不一致。本文提出HierSTT,一种基于分层Transformer的协同多级急诊需求预测框架。该模型在端到端架构中联合预测医院、区域与国家级需求。通过时间融合Transformer捕捉全国动态,空间-时间编码器-解码器模块在高层预测条件下建模区域与医院需求,并引入一致性感知损失惩罚跨层级偏差。我们构建了覆盖葡萄牙5个区域健康管理部门下81家医院的全国级急诊数据集,包含各级异构协变量。实验表明,HierSTT相较最佳非分层深度学习基线平均WAPE降低32%,优于所有经典分层修正方法,且各层级预测高度一致。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Emergency Departments (EDs) are critical access points in healthcare systems, yet they face persistent pressure from unpredictable patient demand, seasonal surges, and non-urgent visits. Effective ED planning requires forecasts at multiple decision-making levels: hospitals need local demand estimates for staffing and bed management, regions require forecasts to coordinate healthcare units, and national authorities need system-wide projections for capacity planning. However, most existing approaches forecast ED demand independently at a single level, ignoring the hierarchy linking hospitals, regions, and national systems. This can produce incoherent predictions, where hospital-level forecasts do not aggregate consistently to regional or national demand. We propose HierSTT, a hierarchical Transformer-based framework for coherent multi-level ED forecasting. HierSTT jointly predicts hospital, regional, and national level demand in a single end-to-end model. A Temporal Fusion Transformer captures national dynamics, while spatio-temporal Transformer encoder-decoder modules model regional and hospital demand conditioned on higher-level forecasts. A coherence-aware loss penalizes cross-level inconsistencies during training. We further introduce a nationwide Portuguese ED dataset covering 81 hospitals across 5 regional health administrations, with heterogeneous covariates at each level. Experiments show that HierSTT reduces average WAPE by 32\% relative to the best non-hierarchical deep learning baseline and outperforms all classical hierarchical reconciliation methods, while producing near-coherent predictions across levels. Additional resources associated with this work are available at https://github.com/FilipaLino/HierSTT.

急诊预测分层建模Transformer

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