arXiv:2607.27152cs.LG2026-07

用卫星雷达数据直接预测海上风速风向,提升短期风电预报精度。

Skillful forecasting of offshore winds from satellite scatterometer constellations

论文配图:Skillful forecasting of offshore winds from satellite scatterometer constellations
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于多国卫星散射计数据,设计新型时序模型直接进行短时预报。
  • 在北海区域1小时和2小时预报误差分别降低23%和7%,优于现有模式。
  • 适用于风电调度、台风监测等场景,尤其适合强风非均流条件下的预报。

准确的海上风力日内预报对电力系统运行及海上风电并网日益重要。现有业务预报主要依赖数值天气预报(NWP),但其在分钟至小时级的预报中受初始场精度影响大,表现不佳。尽管卫星散射计数据常被同化进NWP,却未被直接用于预报。本文提出WindCastNet,首个基于卫星散射计星座的海上风速与风向短临预报框架,开创了一种从时空不规则卫星观测中学习的新范式。该模型利用欧洲、中国和印度散射计的微波雷达观测,通过部分卷积长短期记忆网络处理其不规则空间覆盖、异步采样与可变重访周期问题。引入空间观测掩码与观测间隔编码,并采用连续时间表示,实现任意提前期预报。在北海区域评估显示,相比HARMONIE MEPS模型,其1小时和2小时预报的均方根误差分别降低23%和7%;相较持续性预报,在前三个小时提升9%-15%。强风与非均匀流条件下预报性能下降。结果表明,卫星散射计星座可提供独立且具有竞争力的短期海上风预报,为可再生能源预测带来新机遇,亦拓展至热带气旋等海洋天气应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate intraday forecasts of offshore wind are becoming increasingly important for power system operation and the integration of growing shares of offshore wind energy. Operational forecasts rely predominantly on numerical weather prediction (NWP), which is not optimized for lead times of minutes to hours, where initial-condition accuracy dominates forecast skill. Although satellite scatterometer observations are routinely assimilated into NWP, they have not previously been used directly for forecasting. Here we present WindCastNet, the first satellite-based nowcasting framework for offshore wind speed and direction, introducing a new paradigm for intraday forecasting that learns from spatiotemporally irregular satellite observations. WindCastNet predicts offshore wind fields from observations acquired by satellite scatterometer constellations. WindCastNet employs a partial convolutional long short-term memory network that exploits microwave radar observations from the European, Chinese, and Indian scatterometers despite their irregular spatial coverage, asynchronous sampling, and variable revisit times. Spatial observation masks and inter-observation intervals are encoded, while a continuous temporal representation enables forecasts at arbitrary lead times. Evaluated over the North Sea, WindCastNet reduces the root-mean-square error by 23% and 7% relative to the HARMONIE MEPS model at lead times of 1 and 2 h, respectively, and outperforms persistence by 9-15% during the first three forecast hours. Forecast skill decreases under strong-wind conditions and spatially non-uniform flow. These results demonstrate that satellite scatterometer constellations can provide an independent and competitive source of short-term offshore wind forecasts, opening new opportunities for renewable energy forecasting but also broader marine weather applications, including tropical cyclone nowcasting.

风力预测卫星遥感短临预报海上风电

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。