用连续时间建模提升不规则时序预测精度,避免插值与数值求解开销。
Enhancing Irregular Time Series Forecasting with Continuous-Time Modeling Framework

- 直接编码原始事件,用间隙感知标记处理长时间缺失数据。
- 无需数值求解器,通过残差流匹配实现高效训练与推理。
- 适合医疗、环境等高不规则采样场景的时序预测任务。
不规则多变量时序广泛存在于医疗监测、人体活动识别和环境传感中。其核心挑战在于异步观测、非均匀采样间隔,以及时间模式本身携带的关键动态信息。现有方法或依赖离散化预处理(如插值、填补或聚合),破坏连续时间语义;或采用基于微分方程的连续时间建模,但需专用架构且因数值求解带来巨大计算开销。为此,我们提出WrapFlow,一种面向不规则时序预测的连续时间建模框架。输入侧引入连续时间标记化,直接编码原始观测事件,并通过间隙感知标记显式建模长未观测区间;输出侧设计无仿真训练范式,基于残差流匹配学习围绕基线预测的条件残差向量场,避免训练中数值求解与反向传播。该设计使推理仅需少量固定滚动步骤即可实现高质量连续预测。在多个真实数据集上的实验表明,WrapFlow达到当前最优性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Irregular multivariate time series are widely encountered in applications such as healthcare monitoring, human activity recognition, and environmental sensing. Their core challenges stem from asynchronous observations, non-uniform sampling intervals, and the fact that temporal patterns themselves carry critical dynamic information. Existing approaches either rely on discretization-based preprocessing (e.g., interpolation, imputation, or aggregation), which disrupts the underlying continuous-time semantics, or adopt continuous-time modeling via ODE-based frameworks, which typically require specialized architectures and incur substantial computational overhead due to numerical solvers. To address these limitations, we propose WrapFlow, a continuous-time modeling framework for irregular time series forecasting. On the input side, WrapFlow introduces Continuous-Time Tokenization, which directly encodes raw observation events and explicitly models long unobserved intervals via gap-aware tokens. The resulting continuous-time tokens are then processed by a standard Transformer backbone to capture long-range temporal dependencies. On the output side, we develop a simulation-free training paradigm for Residual Flow Matching, which learns conditional residual vector fields around base predictions while avoiding numerical-solver simulation and backpropagation during training. This design enables high-quality continuous forecasting using only a small number of fixed rollout steps at inference. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that WrapFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance.
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