用更高清卫星数据提升光伏太阳能估算精度,尤其在多云天气下效果显著。
Meteosat Third Generation imagery improves CNN-based SSI retrieval

- 融合SEVIRI与FCI影像的卷积网络模型,结合太阳角度和晴空辐射特征
- 多云条件下模型RMSE降低5.7至8.2 W/m²,优于仅用旧卫星数据的模型
- 适合关注光伏能源预测的气象与能源研究者,尤其关注云层影响场景
准确估算地表太阳辐照度(SSI)对光伏发电监测与预报日益重要。新推出的第三代欧洲气象卫星(MTG)相比第二代(MSG)具备更高空间分辨率,但其在机器学习驱动的SSI反演中的优势尚未明确。本文提出一种多图像、多分辨率卷积神经网络架构,结合MSG/SEVIRI与MTG/FCI卫星影像及太阳几何、晴空辐照度特征,实现北欧(爱沙尼亚)10分钟尺度的SSI估算。模型基于8个爱沙尼亚气象站的地基辐射计数据,采用站点交叉验证与多训练种子评估性能,并与物理模型SARAH-3产品对比。结果表明,在多云和阴天条件下,混合SEVIRI-FCI模型显著优于仅使用SEVIRI的模型,分别降低RMSE 8.2 W m⁻² 和 5.7 W m⁻²;但在部分云或晴朗条件下两者无统计差异。相较SARAH-3,混合模型在多云条件下技能得分提升35%,云天21%,整体20%;但在晴空条件下仍表现较差。结果说明:当云层主导辐照变化时,更高分辨率的MTG/FCI影像能有效提升机器学习型SSI反演精度,但单纯提高空间分辨率无法解决晴空条件下的模型局限性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate Surface Solar Irradiance (SSI) estimation is increasingly important for photovoltaic energy monitoring and forecasting. The recently introduced Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellite constellation provides imaging data with higher spatial resolution compared to the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite constellation, but its benefits for machine-learning-based SSI retrieval have not been well established. In this work, we introduce a multi-imager and multi-resolution convolutional neural network architecture for 10-minute SSI retrieval over Northern Europe (Estonia) using MSG/SEVIRI and MTG/FCI satellite imagery together with solar-geometry and clear-sky irradiance features. Model performance is evaluated against ground-based pyranometer measurements from eight Estonian meteorological stations using site-based cross-validation and multiple training seeds. Model performance is also compared with the SARAH-3 physics-based satellite SSI product. The hybrid SEVIRI-FCI model significantly outperformed the SEVIRI-only model under overcast and cloudy conditions, reducing RMSE by 8.2 W m$^{-2}$ and 5.7 W m$^{-2}$, respectively. However, under partly cloudy or clear skies, no statistically significant difference in RMSE was observed between the SEVIRI-FCI hybrid and the SEVIRI-only models. Compared with physics-based SARAH-3, the hybrid model yielded skill scores of 35 % under overcast conditions, 21 % under cloudy conditions, and 20 % overall. Furthermore, both models underperformed SARAH-3 in clear-sky conditions. These results show that higher-resolution MTG/FCI imagery improves CNN-based SSI retrieval when clouds dominate irradiance variability, but also indicate that higher spatial resolution alone is insufficient to address clear-sky limitations in machine-learning-based SSI retrieval.
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