arXiv:2607.28124cs.LGcs.AI2026-07被引 2

让时间序列预测的解释更真实可靠,且无需额外计算开销。

Information Bottleneck Learning for Faithful Time Series Forecasting Explanations

论文配图:Information Bottleneck Learning for Faithful Time Series Forecasting Explanations
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用信息瓶颈约束分解周期与残差成分,生成可解释掩码。
  • 在相同稀疏度下,解释忠实度显著优于梯度、遮挡等方法。
  • 仅需14%-20%数据即可精准预测,适合高可信决策场景。

随着预测在能源、交通、医疗等领域日益影响决策,理解支撑预测的历史数据与以往同等重要。现有可解释预测模型虽展示内部结构,但无法保证其真实性;而注重忠实性的方法多用于事后分类任务,不适用于时序预测。为此,我们提出IB-Forecast——一种原生可解释的多变量时间序列预测框架。它将预测分解为学习到的周期成分与基于输入标记可解释掩码的残差成分,通过预算受限的信息瓶颈实现端到端优化,用户可直接控制解释稀疏度。在严格的忠实性评估协议下,实验表明IB-Forecast在预测误差上媲美领先黑盒模型,同时提供无额外推理成本的真实解释。在匹配稀疏度预算下,其原生解释在所有数据集上均超越基于梯度、遮挡及优化的基线方法。相比之下,现有可解释预测器的解释忠实度较差,而IB-Forecast保证高解释保真度,仅需14%-20%观测值即可实现低误差预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As forecasts increasingly drive decisions in fields such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, understanding the historical data behind these predictions has become as crucial as the predictions themselves. Although existing interpretable-by-design forecasters reveal their internal structures, they offer no guarantee that these structures faithfully reflect the underlying evidence driving the predictions. In contrast, while faithfulness-oriented methods explicitly verify model behavior, they are almost exclusively designed for post-hoc classification tasks. To bridge this gap, we propose IB-Forecast, an inherently interpretable multivariate time-series forecasting framework. It decomposes forecasting into a learned periodic component and a residual component computed with explainable masks over input tokens. With a budget-constrained information bottleneck, end-to-end optimization enables users to directly control explanation sparsity. With a rigorous faithfulness evaluation protocol, extensive experiments demonstrate that IB-Forecast matches the forecasting error of leading black-box models while providing faithful explanations at no additional inference cost. Furthermore, under a matched sparsity budget, these native explanations consistently surpass gradient-based, occlusion-based, and optimization-based baselines across all evaluated datasets. Ultimately, whereas the native explanations of existing interpretable forecasters exhibit poor faithfulness, IB-Forecast guarantees high explanation fidelity, requiring only 14-20% of the observations to deliver low-error predictions.

时间序列可解释性信息瓶颈预测解释

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