用大模型提取财经新闻中的多维信息,比单一情感分析更能预测股价走势。
Beyond Sentiment: Structured Information Extraction from Financial News

- 用LLaMA-3.1-70B从财经新闻中提取事件类型、影响范围等六个结构化维度
- 结合结构化特征与情感特征后,预测准确率提升至F1=0.600,显著优于单一方法
- 非情感维度独立贡献0.019的准确率提升,适合金融量化与NLP研究者
金融情感分析虽已成为新闻驱动股价预测的标准模块,但将复杂的新闻文章简化为单一极性分数,导致信息损失。我们假设财经新闻包含事件类型、影响范围、时间跨度和语义置信度等多维信息,这些维度与情感相互独立且具备预测价值。为此,提出基于LLaMA-3.1-70B的结构化信息抽取框架,从FNSPID数据集的41,618个新闻-股票对中提取六维语义特征。实验表明:(i) FinBERT情感特征在非线性模型下表现良好(F1=0.576),但在线性模型中大幅下降(F1=0.230),揭示情感与回报间存在高度非线性关系;(ii) LLM提取的结构化特征虽个体较弱,但与情感特征存在53.5%的系统性差异;(iii) 融合两者可达到F1=0.600,显著优于任一单独信号(p<0.0001),且在所有七类事件中均稳定提升。消融实验确认非情感维度(事件类型、影响主体、时间跨度、置信度)独立贡献ΔF1=+0.019。特征重要性分析显示六维贡献均衡(14–21%),说明将新闻压缩为单一情感值会造成显著信息丢失。结果表明金融文本中情感与语义的解耦是系统性且可利用的,为多维金融NLP开辟新方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial sentiment analysis has become a standard component in news-driven stock prediction, yet it reduces rich, multi-dimensional news articles to a single polarity score. We hypothesize that financial news encodes multiple orthogonal information dimensions---event type, impact scope, temporal horizon, and semantic confidence---that sentiment alone cannot capture, and that these dimensions carry independent predictive value. To test this hypothesis, we propose a structured information extraction framework that leverages LLaMA-3.1-70B to extract six semantic dimensions from financial news. Through large-scale experiments on 41,618 news--stock pairs from the FNSPID dataset, we find that (i) FinBERT sentiment features exhibit strong predictive power under nonlinear models (F1=0.576) but substantially weaker performance under linear models (F1=0.230), revealing a highly nonlinear sentiment--return relationship; (ii) LLM-extracted structured features, while individually weaker, capture information orthogonal to sentiment, as evidenced by a 53.5% systematic disagreement rate between the two approaches; and (iii) combining both signal sources yields F1=0.600, significantly outperforming either alone ($p < 0.0001$), with consistent improvements across all seven event types. Ablation experiments confirm that non-sentiment structural dimensions (event type, impact subject, time horizon, confidence) independently contribute $Δ\text{F1} = +0.019$ beyond FinBERT alone. Feature importance analysis reveals balanced contributions from all six extracted dimensions (14--21%), demonstrating that compressing news into a single sentiment score incurs substantial information loss. Our results suggest that the sentiment--semantics decoupling in financial text is systematic and exploitable, opening a new direction for multi-dimensional financial NLP.
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