arXiv:2607.29053cs.LG2026-07

提出局部模型比较方法,精准识别不同区域的最优模型。

Who Wins Where? Conformal Model Comparison for Local Superiority

论文配图:Who Wins Where? Conformal Model Comparison for Local Superiority
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用分样本框架构建局部最优模型地图,基于残差校准不确定性。
  • 在目标点仅当置信边界排除平局时才宣布局部胜者,保证可靠性。
  • 适合需要区域化决策的场景,如医疗诊断或个性化推荐。

标准模型比较是全局性的,通过聚合协变量空间上的损失来确定单一优胜者,这可能掩盖模型在不同区域表现异质的问题。本文提出一种可校准的局部模型比较方法,基于分样本框架构建局部最优模型地图。给定模型比较评分(如两平方损失之差),该方法使用三个互不重叠的样本集分别拟合竞争模型、从外样本评分中估计局部中心与尺度,并对残差不确定性进行符合校准。在目标点,仅当单边符合置信区间排除平局时才宣布局部胜者,且评分符号决定偏好模型。我们证明了未来实际比较得分上单边错误声明的有限样本边际控制;建立了远离平局边界的局部均值评分估计器的逐点一致性;表明全局比较结果与局部优势出现频率可能存在显著分歧;并推导出平方损失的偏差-方差分解,揭示模型结构如何影响局部胜出。合成数据与真实数据实验显示,该方法能准确恢复异质性胜区,在不确定时主动放弃判断,并带来比全局选择更高的条件收益。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Standard model comparison is global, aggregating losses across the covariate space to declare a single winner. This can obscure heterogeneous performance, where different models are preferable in different regions. We introduce conformalized local model comparison, a split-sample framework for constructing calibrated local best-model maps. Given a model comparison score, such as the difference between two squared losses, the method uses three disjoint splits to fit competing models, estimate local centers and scales from out-of-sample scores, and conformally calibrate residual uncertainty. At a target point, the procedure declares a local winner only when a one-sided conformal bound excludes a tie, with the score's sign determining the favored model. We prove finite-sample marginal control for one-sided erroneous declarations on the realized future comparison score, establish pointwise consistency of the localized mean-score estimator away from tie boundaries, show that aggregate comparison can disagree sharply with the prevalence of local superiority, and derive a squared-loss bias--variance decomposition that clarifies how model structure affects local wins. Synthetic and real-data experiments show that the method recovers heterogeneous winner regions, abstains under uncertainty, and yields higher conditional gain than global selection.

模型比较局部决策统计校准

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。