arXiv:2608.00402cs.LGcs.AI2026-08KDD

针对动态交通下行程时间预测难题,提出双阶段持续学习框架。

DSETA: A Dual-Stage Continual Learning Framework for Travel Time Prediction in Dynamic Traffic Environments

论文配图:DSETA: A Dual-Stage Continual Learning Framework for Travel Time Prediction in Dynamic Traffic Environments
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 分日间与日内两阶段学习,分别捕捉长期趋势与短期波动。
  • 在线实验显示北京、武汉、西安等地预测误差降低6.62%至2.40%。
  • 适合需要实时适应交通变化的出行平台,如网约车调度系统。

行程时间预估(ETA)是智能交通系统的核心组件。随着大城市交通拥堵模式日益动态化,保持高精度预测对网约车平台构成重大挑战。现有方法或无法适应不规则交通模式与突发拥堵,或在面对新分布时未能区分长期趋势与短期波动,导致实际场景中性能下降。为此,我们提出DSETA,一种增量更新的双阶段持续学习框架。该框架将持续学习过程分为日间与日内两个阶段:日内阶段完全依赖实时数据,动态适应由节假日、事故等事件引起的短期交通变化;日间阶段则利用短时间窗口内聚合的历史数据,捕捉季节性趋势和交通网络演变等长期分布偏移。为防止灾难性遗忘并保留常规模式知识,我们设计了历史交通知识巩固模块。通过在滴滴平台真实数据集上开展大量离线与在线实验验证,线上A/B测试覆盖北京、武汉、西安三座城市,结果均显示性能提升,平均绝对误差分别降低6.62%、0.73%和2.40%。该框架已成功部署于滴滴生产环境,日均处理数亿请求,证实其在工业应用中的强有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction is a core component of intelligent transportation systems. As traffic congestion patterns become increasingly dynamic in large cities, maintaining high prediction accuracy poses a major challenge for ride-hailing platforms. Existing methods either fail to adapt to irregular traffic patterns and sudden congestion, or suffer from new distributions without disentangling long-term trends from short-term fluctuations, thereby degrading model performance in real-world scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose DSETA, an incrementally updated Dual-Stage ETA prediction framework. Specifically, the continual learning process is divided into \textit{inter-day} and \textit{intra-day} stages. We first design the \textit{intra-day} learning stage, which relies entirely on real-time data to enable dynamic adaptation to short-term traffic patterns caused by events like holidays or accidents. Next, we develop the \textit{inter-day} learning stage, which leverages aggregated historical data from a short time window to capture knowledge of long-term distribution shifts, such as seasonal trends and traffic network evolution. Subsequently, to prevent catastrophic forgetting and preserve knowledge of regular patterns, we explore a \textit{Historical Traffic Knowledge Consolidation} module. Finally, we validate DSETA's effectiveness and robustness through extensive offline and online experiments conducted on real-world datasets from DiDi's platform. Online A/B tests across three major cities including Beijing, Wuhan, and Xi'an consistently demonstrated performance gains, achieving MAE reductions of 6.62\%, 0.73\%, and 2.40\% respectively. This framework has been successfully deployed in DiDi's production environment, processing hundreds of millions of daily requests and validating its strong performance in industrial applications.

交通预测持续学习双阶段滴滴

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