arXiv:2608.00513cs.AIphysics.data-an2026-08

用贝叶斯优化自动找最佳电力负荷分段参数,又快又准。

BayesSeg: A Bayesian Optimization Framework for State Segmentation of Electricity Consumption Time Series

  • 基于尾部值和均值的双稳态判据,无监督分割稳态与过渡态段。
  • 融合事件级F1与互信息的复合指标,提升边界敏感性与判别力。
  • 仅需约100次评估即达最优,提速超5700倍,适合工业级应用。

在非侵入式负荷监测(NILM)中,电力消耗时间序列的自适应分段对电器识别至关重要。现有方法普遍存在启发式参数调优、边界敏感及度量饱和等问题。本文提出BayesSeg框架,集成时间序列分段、多维评估与自动参数优化。分段层采用基于前序子序列尾部值与均值的双稳态准则,结合顺序提取与补集解析策略,实现精确的无监督分段。评估层将分段结果映射为二值状态序列,构建包含事件级F1分数(event_F1)与归一化互信息(NMI)的复合度量:event_F1通过容差匹配量化开关事件的精确率与召回率,NMI捕捉全局结构一致性,共同克服点级度量的边界敏感与判别力不足。优化层以复合得分作为目标函数,利用贝叶斯优化构建TPE代理模型,高效探索参数空间。在SustDataED2数据集上的实验表明,贝叶斯优化仅需约100次目标评估即可定位距穷举网格搜索最优解偏差小于0.35%的参数区域。该框架达成加权复合得分0.7149与event_F1 0.9340,同时将优化延迟从约5300秒降至1秒以下,加速超过5700倍。BayesSeg实现了分段配置自动化,为NILM及相关领域的时间序列分析提供可扩展、高效的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), adaptive segmentation of electricity consumption time series is critical for appliance recognition. However, prevailing methods face challenges including heuristic parameter tuning, boundary sensitivity, and metric saturation. This paper proposes BayesSeg, a unified framework integrating time-series segmentation, multidimensional evaluation, and automatic parameter optimization. The segmentation layer employs a dual steady-state criterion based on the tail value and mean of preceding subsequences, combined with a sequential extraction and complement-set parsing strategy, to achieve precise unsupervised partitioning of steady-state and transition-state segments. The evaluation layer maps segmentation results to binary state sequences and formulates a composite metric integrating an event-level F1 score (event_F1) with Normalized Mutual Information (NMI). The event_F1 quantifies switching-event precision and recall via tolerance matching, while NMI captures global structural consistency, jointly overcoming the boundary sensitivity and limited discriminability of point-wise metrics. In the optimization layer, the composite score serves as the objective function for Bayesian optimization, which constructs a TPE surrogate model for efficient global parameter-space exploration. Experiments on the SustDataED2 dataset demonstrate that Bayesian optimization requires only ~100 objective evaluations to locate a parameter region within 0.35% deviation of the exhaustive grid-search optimum. The framework achieves a weighted composite score of 0.7149 and an event_F1 of 0.9340 while reducing optimization latency from ~5300 seconds to under 1 second, a speedup exceeding 5700x. BayesSeg automates segmentation configuration and provides a scalable, efficient solution for time-series analysis in NILM and related domains.

时间序列贝叶斯优化负荷监测无监督学习

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