语言模型在急救分诊中需明确决策代价,才能做出合理推荐。
High-Stakes Decisions with Language Models: Insights from Emergency Triage

- 将语言模型置于概率决策框架中,根据代价权衡调整建议。
- 相同预测下,不同代价设定导致推荐策略显著不同。
- 适合关注医疗决策透明性与可解释性的研究者阅读。
在不确定性下的高风险决策(如医疗急救分诊)不仅需要准确预测,还需估计不同结果的可能性,并显式权衡各类行动的后果,这正是医学诊断与决策的基础。然而,当前语言模型用于高风险临床建议时,往往未明确决策所依据的效用函数。本文通过消费者分诊系统的结构化评估案例,分析语言模型在不同效用函数下的治疗建议,这些效用函数定义了漏诊与过度升级的相对成本。结果显示,具备能力的语言模型能根据设定的效用调整推荐,表明同一预测可支撑截然不同的决策策略。这说明有效部署不仅依赖提升预测性能,更需明确定义决策目标。更广泛而言,高风险应用中的语言模型应被视为概率决策系统,其建议取决于预测能力与显式效用的共同作用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
High-stakes decisions under uncertainty, such as medical emergency triage, require more than accurate predictions. They depend on estimating the likelihood of alternative outcomes while explicitly weighing the consequences of different actions, principles that have long formed the foundation of medical diagnosis and decision making. Yet language models are increasingly used for high-stakes clinical recommendations without explicit specification of the utilities governing these decisions. Here we show that emergency triage with language models can be understood within a probabilistic decision framework, providing a case study of a broader decision-analytic paradigm for steering, evaluating, and deploying language models in high-stakes settings. Using clinical vignettes from a structured evaluation of a consumer triage system, we analyze recommendations for treatment under alternative utility functions that specify the relative costs of missed emergencies and unnecessary escalation. We find that capable language models adjust recommendations in response to stated utilities, revealing that the same underlying predictions can support markedly different decision policies. These findings show that effective deployment depends not only on improving predictions but also on making decision objectives explicit. More broadly, they suggest that language models for high-stakes applications should be understood and evaluated as probabilistic decision systems whose recommendations depend jointly on predictive performance and explicit utilities.
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