用小波与量子机制提升短时降水预报精度,更好保留强降雨核心结构。
QWRF-Net: A Quantum-Wavelet Framework with Rectified Flow for Short-Term Precipitation Nowcasting

- 通过小波分解潜变量并分频段进行量子启发调制,增强多尺度表征。
- 在KNMI和SEVIR数据集上对强降水事件预测准确率提升,尤其在中高阈值下表现稳定。
- 适合灾害预警、城市防洪等需精准捕捉强降雨的场景使用。
短时降水临近预报对水文气象预警至关重要,尤其在强对流降雨可能引发城市内涝、山洪等高影响灾害时。当前挑战在于雷达降水场包含强耦合的多尺度结构,而预报质量随预报时长增加迅速下降,难以维持强降水中心及其空间组织性。为此,本文提出QWRF-Net:一种基于小波与修正流的量子-小波框架。核心思想是将潜在特征显式分解为小波子带,在分解后的潜空间中进行分频段量子启发调制,再通过基于修正流的非自回归解码器生成未来序列。在统一评估协议下,于KNMI雷达与SEVIR基准测试中,QWRF-Net表现出优异的整体性能,尤其在中高降水阈值、极端事件子集上保持一致优势,并有效保留强降水核心与细粒度结构。消融实验表明,小波分解的尺度解耦、分频段差异化调制与流式生成三者提供互补增益。结果表明,联合强化多尺度表征与稳定多步生成是面向预警任务的短时降水预报的重要方向,其提升或可为下游水文与预警应用提供更可靠降水输入。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Short-term precipitation nowcasting is important for hydrometeorological early warning, especially when intense convective rainfall may trigger urban flooding, flash floods, and other high-impact hazards. A key challenge in warning-oriented nowcasting is that radar precipitation fields contain strongly coupled multi-scale structures, while forecast quality often degrades at later lead times, making it difficult to preserve intense precipitation cores and their spatial organization over the full warning-relevant horizon. To address this problem, we propose QWRF-Net, a quantum-wavelet framework with rectified flow for short-term precipitation nowcasting. The core idea is to improve the conditional representation of precipitation by explicitly decomposing latent features into wavelet sub-bands and then performing differentiated quantum-inspired modulation in the decomposed latent space, before generating future sequences through a rectified-flow-based non-autoregressive decoder. Experiments on the KNMI radar and SEVIR benchmarks under a unified evaluation protocol show that QWRF-Net achieves favorable overall performance, with relatively consistent gains at medium-to-high precipitation thresholds, on an extreme-event subset, and in preserving intense precipitation cores and fine-scale structures. Ablation results further indicate that wavelet-based scale disentanglement, differentiated sub-band modulation, and flow-based generation provide complementary benefits within the proposed framework. Overall, these results suggest that jointly enhancing multi-scale precipitation representation and stable multi-step generation is a promising direction for warning-oriented short-term precipitation nowcasting. The observed improvements may also provide a more useful precipitation basis for downstream hydrological and warning-related applications.
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