构建可复现的核战决策仿真系统,验证军事指挥机制
No One Wins in Nuclear War: A Social Simulation of Military Decision-making

- 基于可回放规则引擎,将核战游戏转化为多智能体决策仿真
- 支持从沉默到私密单向沟通的四级媒体层级,模拟真实外交渠道
- 代码与数据开源,适用于各类需验证规则的社会仿真场景
WOPR 是一个用于研究组织高风险决策的社会仿真环境,基于确定性、可回放验证的规则引擎,以兵棋推演为载体。我们首先以公开发布的纸牌游戏《核战》为实例,对照其规则进行建模。选择军事决策作为切入点,因其安全意义重大且尚需深入研究,但系统设计不局限于特定领域:其暴露给智能体的决策点契约可在可验证规则系统间复用。现有社会仿真工作侧重角色拟真与合成意见,但缺乏可验证规则引擎与可回放机制及私密协商通道。WOPR 提供该引擎,其契约使每个战略选择均成为显式代理决策。方法对社会仿真框架无依赖性,我们默认采用 Concordia 作为驱动工具。同一引擎下,WOPR 构建了从沉默至私密单接收者渠道的四级新闻传播阶梯,并将每个派别建模为集体指挥控制系统而非单一代理。所有代码、示例配置与回放数据已公开于 https://github.com/eilab-gt/wopr。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
WOPR is a social-simulation environment for studying how organizations make high-stakes decisions, built on a deterministic, replay-validated rules engine and using wargames as the vehicle. We instantiate it first with the published card game Nuclear War, traced against its published rules. We start with military decision-making because of its safety implications and because it needs further study, but the design is not specific to it: the decision-point contract that exposes the engine to agents is reusable across verifiable rule systems. Existing social-simulation work emphasizes persona fidelity and synthetic opinion, but lacks a verifiable rules engine with replay-checkable mechanics and private-channel negotiation. WOPR supplies that engine, and its contract makes every strategic choice an explicit agent decision. The method is agnostic to social-simulation frameworks; we adopt Concordia as the default harness for driving the game. On the same engine, WOPR layers a four-rung press ladder from silence to private single-recipient channels with structured commitments, and instantiates each faction as a collective command-and-control system rather than a single agent. We make all code, example configurations, and replay data publicly available at https://github.com/eilab-gt/wopr.
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