arXiv:2608.02629cs.LGcs.AI2026-08

用Transformer模型模拟碳封存中的动态注气,精准预测压力与饱和度并量化不确定性。

Multimodal Auto-regressive Transformer Surrogate for Modeling Variable Operations and Quantifying Uncertainty in Geological Carbon Storage

论文配图:Multimodal Auto-regressive Transformer Surrogate for Modeling Variable Operations and Quantifying Uncertainty in Geological Carbon Storage
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 多模态Transformer融合地质模型、参数与注气控制变量,自回归生成时序预测。
  • 测试集上饱和度平均绝对误差0.028,其他量误差仅0.2%-5%。
  • 可识别注气控制模式切换,适合复杂地质条件下的碳封存优化与风险评估。

变井段分层注气策略可提升地质碳封存效率。本文提出一种新型多模态自回归Transformer代理模型,用于在地质不确定性下建模此类操作。基于含断层的三叠储层SEAM CO2地质模型,两口注气井从底向上分阶段开启,阶段时长与单井注入速率作为控制变量。模型通过三个独立编码器处理三维地质模型、相对渗透率函数标量参数及控制变量,经Transformer自注意力融合后,由时序解码器通过交叉注意力实现自回归预测。使用4000次GEOS流体模拟训练,预测监测点饱和度与压力、总注入与移动CO2质量及饱和度分布。新测试集随机采样地质模型与控制变量,饱和度中位数MAE为0.028,其余目标量相对误差为0.2%-5%。模型成功捕捉从流量控制到井底压力控制的转换。将其嵌入分层马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛数据同化流程,在合成真实模型下对三种操作策略进行分析,关键元参数(尤其是断层渗透率)不确定性显著降低。后验预测的饱和度分布与总注入/移动CO2质量与真实模型结果基本一致。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The use of variable well perforation and injection strategies can improve the efficiency of geological carbon storage operations. We develop a new multimodal auto-regressive transformer surrogate to model these operations under geological uncertainty. A modified SEAM CO2 geomodel, which involves a faulted system with three stacked aquifers, is considered. The two injection wells are perforated in stages, from bottom to top, with the stage durations and individual well injection rates treated as control variables. The surrogate model processes three input modalities - the 3D geomodel, scalar parameters characterizing relative permeability functions, and control variables - through separate encoders. These are fused via self-attention in a transformer encoder, and a temporal decoder generates predictions auto-regressively through encoder-decoder cross-attention. The surrogate is trained, using 4000 GEOS flow simulations, to predict saturation and pressure at monitoring locations, total injected and mobile CO2 mass, and saturation footprints. For a new test set, involving randomly sampled geomodels and control variables, the surrogate achieves a median saturation MAE of 0.028 and median relative errors of 0.2-5% for the other quantities of interest. Importantly, it captures the switch from rate to bottom-hole-pressure control. The surrogate model is used within a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation procedure for a synthetic true model under three operational strategies. Substantial uncertainty reduction is achieved for key metaparameters, particularly the fault permeabilities. Posterior predictions for saturation footprints and total injected and mobile CO2 mass are also shown to be generally consistent with true model results.

碳封存不确定性量化Transformer代理模型

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