用地理耦合的物理神经网络,区分疫情传播中的本地与外部感染源。
GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling

- 通过行随机矩阵建模区域间感染源权重,结合地理距离等先验正则化。
- 真实模拟中误差仅0.099,无正则化时升至0.159,错先验达0.577。
- 在路易斯安那州64县数据上,预测误差比基线降低超65%,适合流行病溯源研究。
区域监测数据反映了局部传播、报告、输入和外部感染压力,但难以独立识别。我们提出GeoID-PINN,一种用于易感-感染-恢复-死亡(SIRD)动态的物理信息神经网络。模型采用行随机源组成矩阵表示空间依赖性,其行分配非负源权重且总和为一。通过距离、邻接、通勤或前后关系等信息构建空间先验进行正则化。在四个区域的仿真中,合理距离先验下源组成误差为0.099;无正则化时升至0.159,强误设先验下达0.577,而轨迹拟合与传播尺度估计仍相似。这表明轨迹准确不等于结构可恢复。使用64个路易斯安那州县的新冠数据回溯评估:相较自回归负二项基线,预测训练的Geo-PINN将均方误差从32,957降至11,468,平均绝对误差从70.60降至57.73。基线负对数似然更低(5.158 vs 5.346),说明分布拟合更好但点预测较差。15县受控比较显示,邻接关系使均方误差下降6.85%,平均绝对误差下降3.1%。不同合理先验下性能相近,支持结构正则化但不保证唯一边恢复。结果强调需先验敏感性和观测模型检验方可解读。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Regional surveillance data reflect local transmission, reporting, seeding, and external infection pressure, which are difficult to identify separately. We introduce GeoID-PINN, a physics-informed neural network (PINN) for susceptible-infectious-recovered-deceased (SIRD) dynamics. The model represents spatial dependence with a row-stochastic source-composition matrix whose rows assign nonnegative source weights that sum to one. We regularize this matrix toward a spatial prior constructed from distance, adjacency, commuting, or lead-lag information. In a four-region simulation with known truth, a compatible distance prior gives source-composition error 0.099. The error rises to 0.159 without regularization and 0.577 under a strongly misspecified prior, while trajectory fit and transmission-scale estimates remain similar. Accurate trajectories therefore do not guarantee recovery of the regional dependence structure. We also evaluate GeoID-PINN retrospectively using COVID-19 data from 64 Louisiana counties. Relative to an autoregressive negative-binomial baseline, Forecast-Trained Geo-PINN reduces mean squared error (MSE) from 32,957 to 11,468 and mean absolute error (MAE) from 70.60 to 57.73. The baseline has lower negative log likelihood (NLL), 5.158 versus 5.346, indicating better distributional fit but worse point accuracy. In a controlled 15-county comparison, county adjacency reduces MSE by 6.85 percent and MAE by 3.1 percent. Similar performance across plausible priors supports structured regularization but not unique edge recovery. These results require prior-sensitivity and observation-model checks before interpretation.
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