arXiv:2608.02704cs.AIcs.LO2026-08

提出预测集合论,用集合操作构建可计算的认知架构。

Predictive Set Theory: A Generative Framework for Cognitive Architecture with Operationalized Core Mechanisms

  • 以集合论操作为基础,定义预测、误差响应与一致性维持机制
  • 推导出状态序列、需求判断、比较决策等核心认知功能
  • 适合研究认知建模、符号系统与形式化推理的学者

预测加工理论将大脑视为层级预测引擎,但缺乏对‘预测’结构、误差响应标准以及连续更新一致性的操作定义。贝叶斯认知科学虽统一不确定性处理,却预设封闭假设空间,未说明概率所作用的对象如何成为可识别的指称项。本文提出预测集合论(PST),一种从第一性原理重建认知架构的形式化生成框架。其以最小操作集为基础——传感器为恒等函数、集合论状态刷新,以及三种基本参照链(参照、反参照、半参照),严格推导出状态序列、需求、比较、效率及有限时域概率规划等核心认知功能。PST不模拟神经机制,而是为需在信息不完备与不可逆风险下保持内部一致性的系统提供设计规范。该框架为罗素悖论、哥德尔不完备性的认知地位、负反馈的根基及电影剪辑的理解等问题提供新解。本文旨在通过学术记录确立PST的原创性与完整性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predictive processing theories portray the brain as a hierarchical prediction engine that minimizes prediction error, yet they lack operational definitions for the structure of a "prediction," the standardized response to a prediction error, and the mechanism that maintains consistency across successive updates. Bayesian cognitive science attempts to subsume all uncertainty under probabilistic belief updating, but it presupposes a closed hypothesis space and provides no generative account of how the objects over which probabilities are distributed become discrete, identifiable referents in the first place. This paper introduces Predictive Set Theory (PST), a formal generative framework that reconstructs cognitive architecture from first principles. PST anchors cognition in a minimal set of operations---a sensor formalized as an identity function, set-theoretic state refresh, and three fundamental forms of reference chains (reference, counter-reference, and semi-reference)---and rigorously derives core cognitive functions including state sequences, demand, comparison, efficiency, and finite-horizon probabilistic planning. Rather than modeling neural mechanisms, PST constitutes a design specification for any system that must maintain internal consistency while acting under incomplete information and irreversible risk. The framework offers novel resolutions to classical problems such as Russell's paradox, the cognitive status of Gödelian incompleteness, the grounding of negative feedback, and the comprehension of film editing. The primary purpose of this paper is to establish, through the public academic record, the originality and completeness of the Predictive Set Theory framework.

认知架构形式化推理集合论预测加工

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