arXiv:2608.03339cs.AI2026-08中稿 · KDD

让智能预测系统可追溯,一眼看清决策依据。

Traceable Multi-Agent System for Knowledge-Based Forecasting

论文配图:Traceable Multi-Agent System for Knowledge-Based Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用因果图结构组织多智能体输出,连接文本与数据。
  • 支持原油价格预测,可对比多轮迭代结果。
  • 适合需要透明决策过程的金融与企业用户。

企业预测日益依赖自主智能体,它们能解读文档、搜索数据、生成代码并优化模型。但这种自主性也使从业者难以追踪预测变化的原因、支撑证据及数据与建模选择的调整过程。我们提出TraceMAS——一个可追溯的多智能体预测交互演示系统。该系统围绕两种因果环图组织智能体输出:理想因果环图(Ideal CLD)从领域文档中提取关键因素及其因果关系;数据驱动因果环图(Data-Grounded CLD)将这些因素与内部变量、外部数据或已知代理指标关联。后者指导特征构建与模型设计,同时保留文本证据、数据选择与模型修订之间的可追溯联系。我们在原油价格预测任务上展示了TraceMAS,其界面支持用户比较不同预测轮次、检查智能体级修改、探索因果图、审查特征-数据映射及模型架构,并将情景预测与市场叙事对齐。该演示表明,自主预测智能体可在保持灵活性的同时,实现从证据到预测全过程的可解释性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Enterprise forecasting increasingly relies on autonomous agents that interpret documents, search for data, generate code, and revise models. While this autonomy helps build adaptive forecasting pipelines, it also makes it difficult for practitioners to inspect why a forecast changed, which evidence supported the change, and how data and modeling choices were revised. We present TraceMAS, an interactive demo system for traceable multi-agent forecasting. TraceMAS organizes agent outputs around two causal-loop representations: an Ideal Causal Loop Diagram (Ideal CLD), which captures key factors and their causal relations extracted from domain documents, and a Data-Grounded Causal Loop Diagram (Data-Grounded CLD), which links those factors to internal variables, external data, or documented proxies. The Data-Grounded CLD guides feature construction and model design while preserving the connection between textual evidence, data choices, and model revisions. We demonstrate TraceMAS on crude oil price forecasting. The demo interface allows users to compare forecasting iterations, inspect agent-level revisions, explore causal maps, review feature-data mappings and model architecture, and connect scenario forecasts to market narratives. This demonstration shows how autonomous forecasting agents can retain flexibility while making the evidence-to-forecast process inspectable.

多智能体可追溯性预测系统因果图

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