arXiv:2608.04046q-bio.QMcs.LG2026-08中稿 · Machine Learning f…

不二值化生存数据能发现更多关键预后特征

The Cost of Binarizing Survival Outcomes in Clinical Prognostic Modeling

论文配图:The Cost of Binarizing Survival Outcomes in Clinical Prognostic Modeling
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用生存分析替代二值化,改进贝叶斯网络特征选择
  • 在5个头颈癌队列和3种其他癌症中识别出被忽略的预后因子
  • 适合关注临床预后建模与生存分析的研究者

生存分析是时间到事件数据的经典框架,但许多临床机器学习研究仍对结果进行二值化处理。这会导致删失患者被排除、时间信息压缩为单一阈值,影响预后相关特征的选择。本文以两个近期研究为案例,考察二值化代价:一个头颈部癌队列采用贝叶斯网络(BN)特征选择,另一个外科队列虽非基于BN,但也对生存终点进行了二值化。我们改用Cox部分似然作为特征-结局边的评分函数,提出「生存感知贝叶斯网络」,恢复了二值化遗漏的预后特征。消融实验表明,性能提升源于时间-事件评分形式,而非仅因纳入更多患者。该方法在5个头颈癌队列中验证,并推广至乳腺癌、结直肠癌和肾癌共3种癌症类型。建议临床研究默认使用时间-事件方法,因二值化会丢失生存分析中的预后信号。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Survival analysis is an established framework for analyzing time-to-event data, yet many clinical machine learning studies still binarize the outcome before model training. This practice excludes censored patients, collapses temporal information into a single threshold, and can affect which features are selected as prognostically relevant. We examine the cost of this binarization in the context of Bayesian network (BN) feature selection, using two recent publications as case studies: one that applies BN-based feature selection to a head-and-neck cancer cohort and a second surgical cohort study that, while not BN-based, likewise binarizes its survival endpoint. We replace the binary scoring function with the Cox partial log-likelihood for feature-to-outcome edges, a modification we call the Survival-Aware Bayesian network, and recover prognostic features that binarization misses. Our ablation experiment confirms that the improvement is driven by the time-to-event scoring formulation rather than by retaining more patients. The results generalize across five endpoint-cohort combinations in head-and-neck cancer and extend to three further cancer types (breast, colorectal, and kidney). We propose that clinical studies with survival outcomes should use time-to-event methods by default, as binarization discards the prognostic signal retained by survival analysis.

生存分析特征选择临床建模

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