arXiv:2608.04471cs.LGcs.AI2026-08KDD

用双线性结构建模非线性时序,提升长期预测精度。

Beyond Linear Dynamics: Neural Bilinear Dynamical Models for Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:Beyond Linear Dynamics: Neural Bilinear Dynamical Models for Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于柯尔莫哥洛夫理论将非线性系统升维,在高维隐空间构建双线性动态模型。
  • 在5个真实数据集上,多步和长程预测均显著优于现有方法。
  • 支持缺失控制输入场景,通过记忆增强控制器自动推断隐式控制信号。

现实世界中的时序数据常由非线性动力系统生成,准确预测面临挑战。现有显式建模系统动态的方法多依赖线性假设或基于柯尔莫哥洛夫的线性化,难以捕捉复杂非线性行为,导致长程预测误差累积。为此,我们提出神经双线性动态模型(NBDM),通过双线性隐动态形式建模非线性系统动力学。具体地,NBDM利用柯尔莫哥洛夫理论将原始非线性动态升维至高维隐空间,并在此构建双线性动态模型以刻画状态演化。为缓解双线性表示引入的近似误差,进一步引入参数化误差补偿项。控制输入被显式融入动态中,有辅助变量时直接使用,否则学习反馈信号。针对控制输入缺失的情况,设计了通过历史状态与控制信号乘积交互推断隐式控制的记忆增强控制器。在五个真实数据集上的实验表明,无论是否有给定控制输入,NBDM在多步和长程预测中均持续优于竞争基线。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series in real-world applications are often generated by nonlinear dynamical systems, making accurate forecasting challenging. Existing approaches that explicitly model system dynamics typically rely on linear assumptions or Koopman-based linearizations, which may inadequately capture complex nonlinear behaviors and lead to error accumulation in long-horizon prediction. To address this limitation, we propose the Neural Bilinear Dynamical Model (NBDM), which models nonlinear system dynamics through a bilinear latent dynamical formulation. Specifically, NBDM leverages Koopman theory to lift the original nonlinear dynamics into a higher-dimensional latent space, where a bilinear dynamical model is constructed to characterize state evolution. To mitigate the approximation error introduced by bilinear representations, we further incorporate a parameterized error compensation term. Within this formulation, control inputs are explicitly integrated into the dynamics, using auxiliary variables when available and learned feedback signals otherwise. To handle scenarios with missing control inputs, we design a memory-enhanced controller that infers latent controls through multiplicative interactions between historical states and control signals. Experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that NBDM consistently outperforms competitive baselines in both given-control and missing-control settings, particularly for multi-step and long-horizon forecasting.

时序预测非线性动力学双线性模型长程预测

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