arXiv:2608.05018cs.AIcs.LG2026-08

基于欧盟AI法案设计的电力负荷预测系统,在41天实测中优于官方基准。

Short-term load forecasting under EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments: Results from a 41-day live challenge on the aggregated German transmission-grid load

论文配图:Short-term load forecasting under EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments: Results from a 41-day live challenge on the aggregated German transmission-grid load
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 采用安全优先的开源框架spotforecast2-safe,内置数据异常处理与可解释性设计。
  • 本地小型模型macl2l在精度上媲美超亿参数大模型,且能耗更低。
  • 适合关注电力系统安全、合规与轻量化部署的研究者与工程师。

短期负荷预测(STLF)在电力行业中至关重要,直接影响关键基础设施运行。如今,其不再仅是性能与精度问题,而需满足确定性、容错处理、最小攻击面和无冗余代码等软件工程要求。本报告介绍了一场为期41天的实时挑战赛结果,评估了针对德国输电网聚合负荷的STLF流程。该流程基于开源Python库spotforecast2-safe,旨在从欧洲输电系统运营商联盟(ENTSO-E)数据中预测目标日的24小时负荷值。流程包含缺损与异常感知的数据预处理、日历与天气协变量,以及预测算法。预测质量与官方ENTSO-E日前预报对比,spotforecast2-safe流程表现更优。上下文学习模型展现竞争力。透明、确定、低成本且可审计的本地模型(本文称为macl2l)在性能上可匹敌超过1亿参数、高能耗的预训练基础模型(如chronos-2)。挑战赛代码、各团队提交记录及存档排行榜均公开可用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in the electric power industry. It is relevant for critical infrastructure. STLF is no longer purely a performance and accuracy problem, because determinism, fail-safe handling, minimal-attack surface, and no dead code are software-engineering requirements rather than optional extras. This report describes results from a 41-day live challenge that evaluated an STLF pipeline for the aggregated German transmission-grid load. The STLF pipeline predicts the 24 hourly load values of a target day from European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) data. It is based on the open-source Python library spotforecast2-safe, which tries to implement the EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments by design. The STLF pipeline includes gap- and anomaly-aware data preprocessing, calendar and weather covariates, and a forecasting algorithm. Forecast quality is compared to the official ENTSO-E day-ahead forecast. The spotforecast2-safe pipeline beats the ENTSO-E baseline. In-context models show competitive performance. Transparent, deterministic, low-cost, and auditable local models (referred to as macl2l in this report) are competitive with more than 100-million-parameter large, energy-intensive pre-trained foundation models such as chronos-2. The challenge implementation, the submission history of all teams, and the archived leaderboard are publicly available.

负荷预测AI合规轻量化模型

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。