arXiv:2608.05054astro-ph.EPcs.AI2026-08

用地球天气模型预测火星天气,仅10次训练就捕捉昼夜变化

MarsCast: Transfer Learning of AI Weather Foundation Models to Planetary Atmospheres

  • 将地球气象大模型GraphCast迁移至火星,用大气数据微调
  • 10轮训练后可预报10天内温度和风场的昼夜与季节变化
  • 适合行星气象预测、任务规划与火星尘暴预警

我们研究了地球气象基础模型向行星大气的可迁移性,将GraphCast图神经网络天气预报模型适配至火星。尽管GraphCast在地球预报中表现卓越,其在非地球环境的应用仍未知。基于火星气候数据库(MCD),该数据提供垂直高度层上的全球大气场,我们评估了零样本与微调后的GraphCast对火星温度和风场的预测。零样本预测虽能准确描绘当前状态,但无法再现昼夜变化,且迅速衰减至气候均值。为解决此问题,我们在保持湿度不变的前提下,使用MCD变量和大气顶太阳辐射强迫对模型进行微调。微调后模型可在仅10个训练周期内快速学习火星热力变化,10天预报已能复现季节与垂直温度结构。预测质量随训练样本量提升,且对季节初始化敏感。结果表明,地球训练的AI气象模型可被有效适应以模拟火星大气动力学,为任务运行、尘暴风险缓解及未来人类探索提供快速行星天气预报路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We investigate the transferability of Earth weather foundation models to planetary atmospheres by adapting the GraphCast graph neural weather forecasting model to Mars. While GraphCast achieves state-of-the-art performance for terrestrial forecasting, its applicability to non-Earth environments remains unexplored. Using the Mars Climate Database (MCD), which provides global atmospheric fields across vertical altitude levels (similar to Earth pressure levels), we evaluate zero-shot and fine-tuned GraphCast predictions of Martian temperature and wind fields. Zero-shot forecasts produce a surprisingly accurate depiction of current conditions but fail to reproduce diurnal variability and rapidly decay toward climatological mean states. To address this limitation, we fine-tune GraphCast using MCD variables and top-of-atmosphere solar radiation forcing while holding humidity constant. Fine-tuning enables rapid learning of Martian thermal variability. Within as few as 10 training epochs, the model begins to capture the diurnal cycle and forecasts up to 10 days reproduce seasonal and vertical temperature structure. Prediction quality improves with training sample size and exhibits sensitivity to seasonal initialization. These results demonstrate that Earth-trained AI weather models can be adapted to simulate Martian atmospheric dynamics, providing a pathway toward rapid planetary weather prediction to support mission operations, dust storm risk mitigation, and future human exploration.

行星气象迁移学习图神经网络火星

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