AI发展将让政府难控风险，现在是干预的最后机会。
The Closing Window: How Governments Could Lose Their Ability to Restrain Advanced AI
- 分析硬件扩散、算法进步等如何让未来监管失效
- 指出可能在未察觉时就跨过不可逆临界点
- 建议尽早采取低成本措施，保留未来控制权
随着人工智能能力提升，其对国家安全乃至人类整体构成更大风险。政府未来或需限制AI发展，但问题在于：届时是否仍具备这种能力？本文分析哪些事件或技术进展会使未来治理变得困难甚至不可能。关键路径包括硬件广泛普及、算法持续突破，以及灾难性危险模型的发布。由于对AI发展的理解不足，可能无法及时识别‘不可逆转点’，因此建议采取保守策略。当前窗口尚存，若立即行动，仍可保持未来调控选项。政策建议可在今日付出较小代价的前提下，确保未来具备约束能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As AI capabilities advance, AI systems will pose greater risks to national security and potentially humanity as a whole. Governments may eventually conclude that these risks warrant restraining AI development. This motivates the question: will governments still be able to restrain AI development in the future, should they want to do so? In this paper we analyze which world events and changes to the state of AI development would make future governance more difficult or even effectively impossible. Our analysis surfaces likely pathways that would lead to these difficulties, including hardware proliferation, continued algorithmic progress, and the release of catastrophically dangerous AI models. Due to the field's lack of understanding of AI development, it may be difficult or impossible to know when we will hit a "point of no return", and we therefore recommend a conservative approach. The window may be closing, but governments currently have an opportunity to preserve their optionality if they act soon. Our policy recommendations would enable governments to restrain AI development in the future, while imposing relatively small costs today.
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